Jorge Polanco's Total Bases props in away games present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 26.7% overs with an 8-22-0 record. His 1.43 average sits 0.8 bases below the typical 2.2 line, generating a robust +40.0% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
Polanco's road struggles with Total Bases props stem from a fundamental disconnect between his actual production and market expectations. Averaging 1.43 total bases per away game while facing lines around 2.2 creates consistent value on the under. The 73.3% under rate across 30 games represents a statistically significant sample that suggests genuine road disadvantage rather than random variance. His longest under streak of nine games demonstrates the persistence of this trend, while his maximum over streak of just two games shows how rarely he exceeds expectations away from home. The -49.1% ROI on overs tells the complete story - betting Polanco overs on the road has been a consistent losing proposition. What makes this particularly compelling is the consistency of the underperformance. This isn't a player occasionally falling short of inflated lines; this is systematic underproduction in away environments. The 0.8 base differential between his average and typical lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his road limitations, creating ongoing value for sharp bettors who recognize the pattern.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Polanco's 73.3% under rate in away games represents one of the most reliable prop trends available, backed by a significant sample size and consistent underperformance. The ideal condition is any away game where his Total Bases line sits at 2.0 or higher. The main risk is potential lineup changes or injury concerns that could alter his role, but the trend's persistence suggests fundamental road struggles that transcend temporary factors.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 9.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jorge Polanco's Total Bases prop record away games?
Polanco's Total Bases record in away games is 8-22-0, hitting overs at just 26.7%. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records available, with unders cashing nearly three times more often than overs across a substantial 30-game sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jorge Polanco Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Polanco's Total Bases in away games with high confidence. The 73.3% under rate and +40.0% ROI make this one of the most reliable prop bets available, particularly when lines are set at 2.0 or higher.
What's Jorge Polanco's average Total Bases away games?
Polanco averages 1.43 total bases in away games, sitting 0.8 bases below the typical 2.2 line. This significant gap between production and market expectations creates consistent value on under bets throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Polanco Total Bases unders is any away game, particularly when lines are 2.0 or higher. His road struggles appear consistent regardless of opponent or situation, making every away game a potential betting opportunity.