Jorge Mateo's Total Bases prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 20.0% overs hitting across 10 games. His 0.7 average sits a massive 1.7 bases below the typical 2.4 line, creating a -61.8% ROI disaster for over bettors while under backers enjoyed +52.7% returns. The trend strongly favors unders.
Expert Analysis
Jorge Mateo's Total Bases struggles stem from a fundamental mismatch between his batting profile and modern prop pricing. His 0.7 average represents catastrophic underperformance against standard lines, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his current offensive limitations. The 5-game under streak isn't random variance—it reflects Mateo's role as a defensive specialist whose bat has regressed significantly. His contact quality and power metrics likely show concerning trends, with weak exit velocities and pull rates that limit extra-base opportunities. The 20.0% over rate across this sample indicates systematic mispricing rather than temporary slump. Mateo's speed doesn't translate to Total Bases the way casual bettors assume, as stolen bases don't count toward this prop. His approach appears geared toward making contact rather than driving the ball, creating consistent value on unders. The -1.7 differential between his average and typical lines represents one of the largest gaps we've tracked, suggesting either continued value or imminent line corrections. Given his defensive value keeps him in lineups despite offensive struggles, this pattern should persist until significant swing changes occur.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Jorge Mateo's Total Bases props offer exceptional under value with his 0.7 average sitting 1.7 bases below standard lines. The 80% under rate across 10 games reflects genuine skill-based underperformance rather than variance. Target unders when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, especially in pitcher-friendly matchups. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or unexpected hot streaks, but his defensive role ensures consistent playing time with limited offensive upside.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jorge Mateo's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Jorge Mateo went 2-8-0 on Total Bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of over bets. This represents one of the worst over rates we've tracked for any regular player, indicating severe underperformance against market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jorge Mateo Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Jorge Mateo's Total Bases props with high confidence. His 0.7 average sits 1.7 bases below typical lines, creating consistent value. The 80% under success rate and +52.7% ROI make this one of our strongest trend plays.
What's Jorge Mateo's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Jorge Mateo averaged just 0.7 Total Bases over his last 10 games, compared to typical lines around 2.4. This massive -1.7 differential represents one of the largest gaps between performance and market pricing we've documented.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jorge Mateo Total Bases unders when lines are 1.5 or higher, particularly against quality pitching or in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His defensive value ensures playing time while offensive limitations create consistent under opportunities.