Jordan Westburg has been a home run desert over his last 10 games, going just 1-9-0 on the over with a brutal -80.9% ROI. Averaging only 0.1 home runs against a 0.5 line creates a massive -0.4 differential that screams systematic underperformance. This is a clear UNDER trend with exceptional value.
Expert Analysis
Westburg's home run drought represents one of the most lopsided prop trends in recent memory, with the third baseman managing just one home run across 10 games while consistently being lined at 0.5. This isn't simply bad luck—it reflects a fundamental shift in his offensive profile during this stretch. The 8-game under streak currently running suggests either a mechanical issue, opposing pitchers exploiting a weakness, or a natural power regression after earlier-season success. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency of the failure rate. When a player goes 1-for-10 on overs with such a low average (0.1), it indicates the sportsbooks haven't properly adjusted their assessment of his current form. The -0.4 differential between his actual production and the betting line represents exceptional value for under bettors. While regression toward career norms is always possible, the length and severity of this cold streak suggests underlying factors beyond random variance. Baltimore's late-season context, potential lineup changes, and Westburg's approach against different pitching types all likely contribute to this sustained power outage. The 71.8% ROI on unders demonstrates just how profitable fading his home run props has become.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 1-9-0 record and -0.4 differential create compelling value, but the sample size demands caution. Westburg's home run props offer solid under value when he's facing quality pitching or in less favorable ballpark conditions. The main risk is natural regression—eventually this cold streak breaks, and when it does, it could be explosive. However, the consistency of recent failure makes the under the smart play until we see concrete signs of power returning.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Westburg's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Westburg has gone 1-9-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games with a devastating -80.9% ROI. He's averaging just 0.1 homers per game against a typical 0.5 line, creating a -0.4 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Westburg Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet UNDER on Westburg's home runs. The 1-9-0 over record and 71.8% ROI on unders create exceptional value. His current 8-game under streak and 0.1 average suggest the sportsbooks haven't adjusted to his power drought.
What's Jordan Westburg's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Westburg is averaging 0.1 home runs over his last 10 games compared to the standard 0.5 line. This -0.4 differential represents one of the largest gaps between actual production and betting expectations in recent memory.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Westburg home run unders when he faces quality pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His current cold streak makes the under profitable in most situations, but avoid betting when he faces weak pitching in hitter-friendly conditions.