Jordan Westburg's hits props show a clear under bias, going 37-42 (46.8% overs) with a brutal -10.6% ROI on overs versus profitable +1.5% on unders. His 1.01 average barely exceeds the typical 0.97 line, creating sustainable value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Jordan Westburg's hits prop data reveals a systematic inefficiency favoring under bets across 79 games. His 46.8% over rate falls well below the 52.4% breakeven threshold needed to overcome standard -110 juice, while the stark ROI differential (-10.6% overs vs +1.5% unders) indicates consistent market overvaluation. The 1.01 hits average against a 0.97 line suggests oddsmakers are pricing in potential rather than production reality. Westburg's profile as a developing player creates volatility that benefits under bettors, as inconsistent contact quality and approach adjustments lead to more hitless games than the market anticipates. The current two-game under streak aligns with this broader pattern, though his previous nine-game over run shows he can get hot. The lack of meaningful splits data actually strengthens the case for systematic betting, as it suggests the edge persists across various conditions rather than being situation-dependent. Young hitters often struggle with consistency as they face advanced scouting reports and pitcher adjustments throughout a season, making their hit totals more prone to underwhelming performances than established veterans.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 46.8% over rate and negative ROI on overs create a sustainable edge, while Westburg's 1.01 average barely justifies typical 0.97 lines. Target spots where the line sits at 1.5, as his hit rate likely struggles to consistently clear that threshold. Main risk is hot streaks like his nine-game over run, so avoid during obvious positive momentum periods.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Westburg's Hits prop record all games?
Jordan Westburg's hits props went 37-42 (46.8% overs) across 79 games from August 2023 to September 2024. Over bets lost -10.6% ROI while under bets gained +1.5%, showing clear market inefficiency favoring the under side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Westburg Hits all games?
Lean under on Jordan Westburg's hits props. His 46.8% over rate and -10.6% ROI on overs create sustainable value on under bets, especially when lines sit at 1.5 where his 1.01 average struggles to consistently clear.
What's Jordan Westburg's average Hits all games?
Jordan Westburg averages 1.01 hits per game against typical 0.97 lines, providing minimal edge for over bettors. This small differential of +0.04 hits explains why under bets have been more profitable with +1.5% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jordan Westburg under bets when lines reach 1.5, as his contact inconsistency makes clearing higher thresholds difficult. Avoid during obvious hot streaks, but his developing hitter profile creates year-round value on the under side.