Jordan Hicks has gone over his strikeout total in 6 of his last 10 games, posting a solid 60% over rate with a +14.6% ROI. However, his 4.1 average falls 0.3 strikeouts short of typical lines around 4.4, creating a modest gap between perception and reality. This presents a lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The 60% over rate masks a crucial inefficiency in Hicks's strikeout pricing. While six overs in ten games suggests a hot streak, his 4.1 average reveals the underlying truth - he's consistently falling short of inflated expectations. The -0.3 differential between his actual production and typical lines indicates oddsmakers are overvaluing his strikeout upside, likely influenced by his reputation as a power arm. This creates systematic value on unders when books set lines at 4.4 or higher. The recent under streak of just one game suggests the market hasn't fully corrected, but the sample size demands caution. Hicks's strikeout production appears more volatile than consistent, with the overs likely driven by a few outlier performances rather than sustainable improvement. The negative ROI on unders (-23.6%) reflects poor timing rather than fundamental weakness in the thesis. Key concerns include his role stability and pitch count limitations that could cap strikeout ceilings. The trend's persistence depends heavily on whether books continue overestimating his strikeout floor, making line shopping critical for maximizing edge.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.3 differential between Hicks's actual average and typical lines creates consistent value when books set totals at 4.4 or higher. Target games where his line exceeds 4.5 for maximum edge. Primary risk is small sample variance and potential role changes that could alter his strikeout opportunities going forward.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Hicks's Strikeouts prop record last 10 games?
Hicks went 6-4-0 over/under on strikeout props in his last 10 games, hitting the over 60% of the time. However, his 4.1 average fell short of typical 4.4 lines by 0.3 strikeouts per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Hicks Strikeouts last 10 games?
Lean under on Hicks strikeout props when lines are set at 4.4 or higher. His actual 4.1 average creates consistent value despite the 60% over rate, which appears inflated by outlier performances.
What's Jordan Hicks's average Strikeouts last 10 games?
Hicks averaged 4.1 strikeouts over his last 10 games, falling 0.3 short of typical 4.4 lines. This gap suggests books are overvaluing his strikeout upside based on reputation rather than recent production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hicks strikeout unders when his line exceeds 4.5, maximizing the edge from his 4.1 actual average. Avoid betting when lines drop to 4.0 or below, as this eliminates the systematic value.