Jonathan India's home run props present one of the most lopsided betting opportunities in baseball, with just 11 overs in 98 games (11.2% over rate). His 0.12 home run average sits 0.4 runs below typical lines, generating massive 69.5% ROI on unders. This is a premium fade-the-power play.
Expert Analysis
Jonathan India's power profile creates a textbook case study in market inefficiency. His 0.12 home runs per game average reveals a player operating far below the power threshold that sportsbooks price into their lines. The 88.8% under rate isn't fluky variance—it reflects India's fundamental approach as a contact-oriented second baseman who prioritizes getting on base over driving balls out of the park. The 30-game under streak demonstrates remarkable consistency in his offensive profile, suggesting books consistently overestimate his power ceiling. India's gap-to-gap swing generates doubles and triples but lacks the launch angle optimization that creates home run upside. His position at second base in Cincinnati's lineup typically puts him in run-scoring situations rather than RBI spots, reinforcing his table-setting role. The -78.6% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has been exploiting this discrepancy, yet books haven't adequately adjusted their pricing models. This persistence suggests structural mispricing rather than temporary form, making India's home run unders a reliable profit center when the line sits above his true talent level.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. India's 0.12 home run average creates massive value against standard 0.5 lines, supported by an 88.8% under rate across nearly 100 games. The 69.5% ROI on unders reflects consistent market mispricing of his contact-first approach. Target unders when lines reach 0.5, with diminishing value below that threshold. Primary risk involves rare hot streaks, but his 30-game under streak demonstrates remarkable power consistency.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonathan India's Home Runs prop record all games?
India's home run prop record stands at 11-87-0 over/under across 98 games, producing an 11.2% over rate. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records in baseball, with unders hitting at an 88.8% clip while generating 69.5% ROI for disciplined bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonathan India Home Runs all games?
Bet UNDER on India's home run props with high confidence. His 0.12 average sits well below standard 0.5 lines, creating consistent value. The 88.8% under rate across 98 games isn't variance—it's his true power profile being mispriced by sportsbooks.
What's Jonathan India's average Home Runs all games?
India averages 0.12 home runs per game compared to typical 0.5 betting lines, creating a massive 0.4-run differential. This gap represents the core value proposition, as his contact-first approach consistently falls short of market expectations for power production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target India's home run unders when lines reach 0.5, offering maximum value against his 0.12 average. Avoid betting during rare hot streaks or in extremely hitter-friendly parks. Best opportunities come in standard conditions where his gap-to-gap approach faces typical pitching.