Johan Rojas has been a consistent under performer on Total Bases props, going 7-11 (38.9% overs) while averaging just 1.0 total bases against a 1.61 line. The -0.6 differential creates significant value on the under with +16.7% ROI versus -25.8% on overs.
Expert Analysis
Johan Rojas's Total Bases performance reveals a young player still adjusting to major league pitching, with his 1.0 average falling well short of the 1.61 line consistently set by oddsmakers. The 38.9% over rate across 18 games suggests books are overvaluing his offensive ceiling, likely influenced by his speed and prospect pedigree rather than current production. His longest under streak of 7 games demonstrates extended periods of offensive struggle, while even his best over streak maxed at 4 games. This pattern indicates a player whose floor is lower than his ceiling is high - exactly the profile that creates sustainable under value. The lack of meaningful split variations suggests this isn't matchup-dependent but rather reflects his current skill level. Center fielders often take time to develop offensive consistency, and Rojas appears to be in that developmental phase where his glove keeps him in the lineup while his bat catches up. The market correction hasn't occurred despite clear evidence of underperformance, creating ongoing opportunity.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 16.7% ROI on unders combined with a significant -0.6 average differential provides clear mathematical edge. Rojas's developmental stage as a young center fielder suggests this trend has staying power rather than being a short-term anomaly. Primary risk is potential lineup changes or reduced playing time affecting sample size, but current role stability supports continued under betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Johan Rojas's Total Bases prop record all games?
Johan Rojas has gone 7-11 on Total Bases overs across 18 games, hitting just 38.9% of his overs. This translates to hitting the under in 61.1% of games with a +16.7% ROI on under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Johan Rojas Total Bases all games?
Bet the under on Johan Rojas Total Bases props. His 1.0 average versus 1.61 line creates consistent value, supported by 61.1% under rate and positive ROI. The developmental phase he's in suggests this edge persists.
What's Johan Rojas's average Total Bases all games?
Johan Rojas averages 1.0 total bases per game against typical lines of 1.61, creating a significant -0.6 differential. This gap between performance and expectation drives the strong under value in his Total Bases props.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Johan Rojas Total Bases unders consistently regardless of matchup, as his struggles appear skill-based rather than situational. Focus on games where he's batting in the bottom third of the lineup for maximum edge.