Joey Wiemer's total bases props show a strong over bias with a 63.6% hit rate (7-4-0) and impressive +21.5% ROI on overs across 11 games. His 1.45 average creates a massive 0.9 differential above the typical 0.5 line. The data strongly favors backing overs.
Expert Analysis
Wiemer's total bases performance reveals a young player whose offensive capabilities consistently exceed market expectations. The 1.45 average against a 0.5 line represents one of the largest differentials we track, suggesting oddsmakers are pricing him as a light-hitting contact player rather than recognizing his legitimate power potential. The +21.5% ROI on overs demonstrates this isn't just variance—it's a systematic mispricing. His current three-game over streak aligns with the broader pattern, though the limited 11-game sample means each result carries significant weight. The lack of available split data prevents deeper matchup analysis, but the consistency across all game situations is encouraging. The primary concern is sample size regression, as young players often see their lines adjusted quickly once patterns emerge. However, the magnitude of his outperformance suggests there's still value even if the market corrects partially. Wiemer's profile as a developing power hitter in Milwaukee's offensive system supports continued over performance, particularly if he maintains regular playing time.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.9 differential and 63.6% over rate create clear value despite the small sample. Wiemer's offensive ceiling appears undervalued by the market, making overs attractive when the line stays at 0.5. The main risk is rapid line adjustment as more data accumulates, so act quickly when favorable numbers appear.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-07-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-07-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-07-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 5.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-06-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-05-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joey Wiemer's Total Bases prop record all games?
Joey Wiemer has gone over his total bases prop in 7 of 11 games (63.6%) with a 7-4-0 record. His overs have generated a +21.5% ROI while unders show a -30.6% loss rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joey Wiemer Total Bases all games?
Bet over on Joey Wiemer's total bases props. His 1.45 average creates a 0.9 differential above the 0.5 line with 63.6% over success and strong +21.5% ROI indicating clear market mispricing.
What's Joey Wiemer's average Total Bases all games?
Joey Wiemer averages 1.45 total bases per game across 11 contests. This creates a significant 0.9 differential above the typical 0.5 line, representing one of the largest gaps in our database.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Joey Wiemer total bases overs when the line remains at 0.5, especially during his current hot streak. Act quickly as the market may adjust this obvious mispricing as more data accumulates.