Joey Bart's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -2.2 differential from the typical 3.2 line. The under trend shows remarkable consistency with a 52.7% ROI, making this a clear fade-the-over situation.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of a catcher struggling to generate offensive impact. Bart's 1.0 total bases average against a 3.2 line represents a massive 69% shortfall, suggesting either market inefficiency or a fundamental shift in his offensive profile. The 20% over rate across 10 games isn't just bad luck—it's systematic underperformance that likely stems from his role as a backup catcher with limited at-bats and pressure to make contact rather than drive the ball. The five-game under streak within this sample demonstrates the persistence of this trend, while his longest over streak maxed out at just one game. What makes this particularly compelling is the consistency of the underperformance rather than volatile swings. Catchers often face fatigue issues that impact power output, and Bart's defensive responsibilities may be affecting his offensive approach. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't fully adjusted to his current production level. However, regression risk exists if he finds his stroke or gets more favorable matchups, though his recent form suggests the underlying issues persist.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 80% under rate combined with a -2.2 average differential creates exceptional value on the under side. Bart's total bases props appear systematically overpriced, likely due to positional adjustments that don't reflect his current offensive struggles. Target this when lines remain elevated above 3.0, though be cautious of any significant lineup changes or extended rest periods that might rejuvenate his approach.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joey Bart's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Joey Bart has gone under his total bases prop in 8 of his last 10 games (80%), with only 2 overs. His record stands at 2-8-0, representing a devastating 20% over rate that has consistently rewarded under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joey Bart Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Joey Bart's total bases props. The 80% under rate and -2.2 average differential from the line create exceptional value. This trend shows remarkable consistency and persistence over the 10-game sample.
What's Joey Bart's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Joey Bart is averaging just 1.0 total bases over his last 10 games compared to the typical 3.2 line. This -2.2 differential represents a massive 69% shortfall, indicating his props are systematically overpriced by the market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Joey Bart total bases unders when lines remain elevated above 3.0, particularly in day games or back-to-back situations where catcher fatigue typically impacts offensive output. Avoid after extended rest periods when he might be refreshed.