Joey Bart's total bases props present a compelling under opportunity with just 27.6% overs across 29 games. His 1.41 average falls dramatically short of the typical 3.09 line, creating a massive -1.7 differential that has generated 38.2% ROI betting unders consistently.
Expert Analysis
Bart's total bases struggles reflect the harsh reality of a backup catcher trying to establish himself at the major league level. His 1.41 average against a 3.09 line reveals a player whose offensive production simply doesn't match betting market expectations. This isn't a temporary slump—it's a fundamental mismatch between perceived and actual value. The 27.6% over rate across 29 games provides substantial sample size credibility, while the -47.3% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently the market has overvalued his offensive ceiling. Catchers typically face unique challenges with total bases props due to demanding defensive responsibilities affecting at-bat quality, and Bart's situation is compounded by inconsistent playing time that limits his rhythm. The current two-game under streak sits within his established pattern, having recorded a six-game under streak as his longest. Most concerning for over bettors is that even his best three-game over streak couldn't overcome the broader trend. The 38.2% ROI on unders isn't just impressive—it's sustainable given the structural factors limiting Bart's offensive upside in his current role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -1.7 differential between Bart's 1.41 average and typical 3.09 lines creates consistent value on unders, supported by 38.2% ROI across 29 games. Target this prop when lines sit at 3.0 or higher, as Bart's offensive limitations as a backup catcher make multi-base games increasingly difficult. Primary risk involves potential breakout performances against weaker pitching, but the 27.6% over rate suggests these are outliers rather than trend-changers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joey Bart's Total Bases prop record all games?
Joey Bart has gone 8-21-0 on total bases overs across 29 games, hitting just 27.6% of his overs. This represents one of the more reliable under trends among active catchers this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joey Bart Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Joey Bart's total bases props. His 1.41 average falls 1.7 bases short of typical 3.09 lines, generating 38.2% ROI on unders while overs lose 47.3%.
What's Joey Bart's average Total Bases all games?
Bart averages 1.41 total bases per game compared to his typical 3.09 line, creating a massive -1.7 differential. This gap represents the largest value discrepancy among regular catchers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bart's total bases unders when lines are set at 3.0 or higher, particularly in day games following night games when catcher fatigue typically impacts offensive performance most significantly.