Joey Bart's home hits props present a compelling under opportunity with just 18.8% overs across 16 games and a brutal -0.8 differential versus the standard 1.5 line. Currently riding a six-game under streak, this trend offers exceptional value for disciplined bettors targeting consistent home underperformance.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about Joey Bart's offensive struggles at PNC Park. Averaging just 0.69 hits per home game against the typical 1.5 line creates an 0.8-hit deficit that reflects deeper issues than simple variance. This level of underperformance over 16 games suggests systemic problems with his approach at home, whether related to comfort level, specific matchup difficulties, or mechanical adjustments that haven't translated to home success. The current six-game under streak isn't an outlier but rather the norm for Bart's home production. What makes this trend particularly reliable is the consistency of the underperformance - we're not seeing wild swings that suggest randomness, but rather steady production below market expectations. The 55.1% ROI on under bets demonstrates the market hasn't fully adjusted to Bart's home hitting deficiencies. While regression toward league averages is always possible, the sample size and consistency suggest this represents a genuine skill-based edge rather than temporary bad luck. The lack of even a two-game over streak in the data set reinforces that this isn't about timing hot streaks, but rather identifying a player whose home hitting ability is systematically overvalued by oddsmakers.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Joey Bart's home hitting props offer exceptional value with an 81.2% under rate and consistent 0.8-hit deficit versus market lines. The six-game active streak and complete absence of sustained over performance indicate this trend has staying power. Target standard 1.5 hit lines when available, as Bart's 0.69 home average provides substantial cushion. Primary risk is potential lineup changes or extended hot streak, but the data overwhelmingly supports continued underperformance at PNC Park.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joey Bart's Hits prop record home games?
Joey Bart's hits prop record in home games is 3-13-0 over/under, hitting the over just 18.8% of the time across 16 games. He's currently on a six-game under streak with his longest over streak being just one game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joey Bart Hits home games?
Bet UNDER on Joey Bart's hits props at home with high confidence. His 0.69 average creates significant value against 1.5 lines, supported by 81.2% under rate and 55.1% ROI on under bets.
What's Joey Bart's average Hits home games?
Joey Bart averages 0.69 hits per home game, running 0.8 hits below the standard 1.5 line. This substantial deficit has persisted across 16 games, indicating systematic underperformance rather than temporary struggles.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Joey Bart hits unders when facing quality pitching at PNC Park, especially on standard 1.5 lines. His consistent home struggles make this a year-round opportunity rather than situational play.