Joc Pederson's total bases prop in high total games presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 23.1% of overs across 13 games with a brutal -1.1 average differential. Currently riding a six-game under streak, this trend suggests consistent value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Pederson's struggles in high total games reveal a fascinating disconnect between game environment and individual performance. While high totals typically indicate favorable hitting conditions—better weather, weaker pitching, or hitter-friendly ballparks—Pederson averages just 1.62 total bases against lines averaging 2.73. This 1.1-base deficit per game is substantial and suggests the market consistently overvalues his production in these spots. The six-game under streak isn't just recent variance; it represents nearly half his sample and indicates a persistent pattern. High total games often feature elevated strikeout rates as both teams press for runs, which could particularly impact Pederson's contact-dependent approach. His power profile may also suffer in games where pitchers attack the zone more aggressively early in counts, leading to weaker contact. The -55.9% ROI on overs versus +46.9% on unders demonstrates this isn't marginal—it's a significant market inefficiency. With no recent hot streaks to suggest regression and the trend showing remarkable consistency, the under appears to offer sustainable value until the market adjusts or Pederson's approach changes.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 23.1% over rate and -1.1 differential represent clear market mispricing in high total environments. Target this when Pederson's line sits at 2.5+ total bases, as the gap between expectation and reality widens. Primary risk is positive regression, but the six-game streak and consistent underperformance suggest this edge remains exploitable.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joc Pederson's Total Bases prop record high total games?
Pederson has gone 3-10 on total bases overs in high total games, hitting just 23.1% with a -55.9% ROI. His average of 1.62 total bases falls 1.1 bases short of typical lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joc Pederson Total Bases high total games?
Bet the under. Pederson consistently underperforms his total bases props in high total games, averaging 1.1 bases below the line with only 3 overs in 13 attempts and six straight unders.
What's Joc Pederson's average Total Bases high total games?
Pederson averages 1.62 total bases in high total games compared to lines typically set around 2.73, creating a significant -1.1 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pederson total bases unders when game totals are elevated and his line is 2.5+ bases. Avoid when he's coming off multi-hit games or facing particularly weak pitching staffs.