Joc Pederson's home run props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% over the last 10 games with a devastating -0.3 differential versus the standard 0.5 line. The veteran slugger's power has completely vanished during this stretch, generating +52.7% ROI for disciplined under backers.
Expert Analysis
Pederson's power outage represents one of the most dramatic collapses we've tracked this season. The 0.2 average against a 0.5 line isn't just missing — it's missing by 60%, suggesting fundamental issues beyond normal variance. This isn't a hot streak cooling off; it's a complete shutdown of his signature skill. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the story of books that haven't adjusted quickly enough to his new reality. Three consecutive unders indicate momentum firmly established, with no recent over streak longer than one game. For a player whose career identity revolves around leaving the yard, this level of sustained impotence suggests either mechanical issues, injury management, or age-related decline that books are slow to recognize. The sample size of 10 games provides sufficient data to identify a genuine trend rather than random fluctuation. Most concerning for over bettors is the consistency — this isn't alternating performance but sustained failure to reach even modest power expectations. Arizona's late-season context may involve rest considerations or lineup changes that further suppress Pederson's opportunities in prime RBI situations.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Pederson's complete power shutdown over 10 games represents a clear market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit. The 0.2 average creates massive cushion against the 0.5 line, while the +52.7% under ROI proves this edge is both real and profitable. Target games where books haven't fully adjusted the line downward, particularly in unfavorable hitting environments or against quality pitching.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joc Pederson's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Pederson went 2-8-0 over/under on home run props in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% overs. He managed only 2 total home runs while averaging 0.2 per game, well below the typical 0.5 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joc Pederson Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Pederson's power has completely disappeared, averaging just 0.2 home runs versus the 0.5 line. The +52.7% under ROI proves this is a profitable trend worth riding.
What's Joc Pederson's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Pederson averaged 0.2 home runs per game over his last 10, creating a massive -0.3 differential against the standard 0.5 line. This 60% shortfall represents one of the season's most dramatic power outages.
How reliable is this trend?
Target games with unfavorable hitting conditions or quality opposing pitching, where books haven't fully adjusted lines downward. Late-season rest considerations may further suppress his power opportunities in key situations.