Joc Pederson's home run prop at Chase Field presents one of the season's most reliable under plays, hitting just 16.7% of overs across 30 games with a brutal -68.2% ROI on overs. His 0.17 home runs per game average sits 0.4 below typical lines, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Pederson's home struggles stem from Chase Field's pitcher-friendly dimensions and his altered swing mechanics in familiar surroundings. The veteran slugger averages 0.17 homers per home game versus a standard 0.5+ line, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to his ballpark-specific regression. His current four-game under streak extends a pattern where he's managed just five homers in 30 home contests. The 59.1% ROI on unders reflects genuine market inefficiency rather than small sample noise. Pederson's pull-heavy approach works against Chase Field's deep left field dimensions, while his age-related decline in exit velocity becomes more pronounced in the desert heat. The consistency of this trend—with a nine-game under streak earlier this season—indicates systematic factors rather than random variance. Books appear slow to adjust lines downward for aging power hitters in pitcher-friendly parks, creating sustained value. The lack of meaningful over streaks (longest just two games) suggests Pederson's home power outages aren't temporary slumps but fundamental shifts in his offensive profile at Chase Field.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Pederson's home run production at Chase Field represents a systematic market inefficiency that books haven't corrected. The 16.7% over rate across 30 games isn't variance—it's a pattern rooted in ballpark dimensions and age-related decline. Target unders when lines sit at 0.5 or higher, especially in day games where his struggles intensify. The primary risk is a hot streak breaking the pattern, but four consecutive unders suggest the trend remains intact.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Joc Pederson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joc Pederson's Home Runs prop record home games?
Pederson went 5-25-0 on home run overs in home games, hitting just 16.7% with five homers in 30 contests. His under record of 25-5-0 represents one of the season's most lopsided prop trends.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joc Pederson Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Pederson's home run props at Chase Field. His 0.17 average versus 0.5+ lines creates systematic value, backed by a 59.1% ROI and current four-game under streak.
What's Joc Pederson's average Home Runs home games?
Pederson averages 0.17 home runs per home game, sitting 0.4 below typical betting lines. This massive differential explains his 16.7% over rate and creates consistent under value at Chase Field.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pederson home run unders during day games at Chase Field when lines are 0.5 or higher. His power struggles intensify in afternoon heat, and books remain slow to adjust lines downward.