JJ Bleday's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going just 3-7 over the last 10 games with a brutal -42.7% ROI on overs. Currently riding a four-game under streak while averaging 2.0 total bases against a typical 2.9 line. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
Bleday's total bases struggles stem from a combination of contact quality issues and timing problems that have persisted throughout this 10-game sample. His 2.0 average against the 2.9 line represents a significant 0.9 differential, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his current form. The 30% over rate indicates systematic underperformance rather than random variance. His four-game under streak demonstrates consistent inability to reach the number, likely driven by poor plate discipline or mechanical adjustments that haven't clicked. The -42.7% ROI on overs is particularly damning, showing that even when he does go over, the juice isn't worth the squeeze. What's most concerning for over bettors is the lack of explosive games - his longest over streak was just two games, suggesting limited ceiling when he does connect. The Athletics' offensive struggles as a team likely contribute to fewer RBI opportunities and less aggressive baserunning, capping his total bases upside. Without split data to identify favorable matchups, this trend appears broadly applicable across different pitching styles and game situations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Bleday's consistent underperformance against the line, combined with the current four-game streak, creates value on the under despite potential regression concerns. Target unders when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, as his 2.0 average provides solid cushion. Main risk is a breakout performance that could signal trend reversal, but the sample size and consistency suggest continued struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is JJ Bleday's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
JJ Bleday has gone 3-7 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of over bets. He's averaging 2.0 total bases against lines typically set around 2.9, creating a significant 0.9 negative differential for consistent under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on JJ Bleday Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on JJ Bleday's total bases props. His 70% under hit rate and +33.6% ROI on unders, combined with his current four-game streak, makes this a solid value play until he shows signs of breaking out of this slump.
What's JJ Bleday's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Bleday is averaging 2.0 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 2.9. This 0.9 negative differential represents significant underperformance and suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his current struggles at the plate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bleday total bases unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher, giving maximum cushion against his 2.0 average. Avoid betting after any multi-hit games that might signal trend reversal, and focus on matchups against quality pitching.