JJ Bleday's home run props have been an under bettor's paradise, cashing at just 20% over the last 10 games with a brutal -61.8% ROI on overs. His 0.2 average sits 0.3 homers below typical lines, creating consistent value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Bleday's power drought reflects a fundamental shift in his approach and the Athletics' offensive environment. The 0.2 home run average over this 10-game stretch represents a dramatic departure from earlier season production, suggesting either a mechanical issue or opposing teams successfully exploiting a weakness in his swing. The consistency of this trend—hitting the under in 8 of 10 games with a current 4-game under streak—indicates this isn't random variance but a sustained performance decline. Oakland's offensive struggles compound Bleday's individual issues, as fewer quality at-bats and less favorable lineup protection limit his opportunities in premium hitting situations. The -0.3 differential between his actual production and typical betting lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to this new reality, creating ongoing value for under bettors. While regression toward career norms remains possible, the depth and consistency of this trend, combined with the Athletics' overall offensive futility, suggests the underlying factors driving Bleday's power outage are structural rather than temporary. The 52.7% ROI on unders demonstrates the market's slow adjustment to his diminished power output.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Bleday's sustained power drought shows no signs of immediate reversal, and the market continues offering value on unders despite overwhelming evidence. The 4-game under streak and consistent 0.2 average suggest mechanical or approach issues that won't resolve overnight. Target unders when lines remain at 0.5 or higher, as the gap between expectation and reality provides exceptional value for disciplined bettors.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is JJ Bleday's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Bleday has gone over his home run prop just twice in 10 games (20% rate) with an 0.2 average. The under has cashed 8 times, including his current 4-game under streak, generating a 52.7% ROI for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on JJ Bleday Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Bleday's 0.2 home run average sits 0.3 below typical lines, and his 20% over rate with 4 consecutive unders shows a persistent power outage the market hasn't fully recognized.
What's JJ Bleday's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Bleday is averaging 0.2 home runs over his last 10 games, sitting 0.3 homers below the typical 0.5 line. This significant gap between production and market expectation creates consistent value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bleday home run unders when lines stay at 0.5 or higher, especially during Oakland's offensive struggles. His mechanical issues and the team's poor lineup protection make unders most valuable in these conditions.