Jeremy Peña's total bases prop at home presents a significant under opportunity with just 30.6% overs across 62 games. His 1.56 average falls 0.8 bases short of typical lines, generating +32.4% ROI on unders while overs hemorrhage -41.5%. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Jeremy Peña's offensive limitations at Minute Maid Park. Averaging just 1.56 total bases per home game against lines typically set around 2.34, Peña consistently fails to reach even modest expectations. This isn't a small sample fluke — across 62 home games spanning nearly two seasons, he's hit the over just 19 times while falling short 43 times. The -0.8 differential between his average and the betting line represents genuine market inefficiency, as oddsmakers appear slow to adjust to Peña's contact-oriented profile. His longest under streak of 16 games demonstrates the persistence of this trend, while his maximum over streak of just 3 games shows how rarely he sustains offensive production. The current 3-game under streak aligns perfectly with his established pattern. Peña's approach favors contact over power, making him particularly susceptible to under results in total bases markets that reward extra-base hits. The consistency of this trend across different opponents and game situations suggests fundamental offensive limitations rather than temporary struggles.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Jeremy Peña's total bases props at home offer consistent value on the under side, backed by a 69.4% hit rate and positive ROI. The ideal conditions are when lines are set at 2.0 or higher, maximizing the gap between his 1.56 average and market expectations. The main risk is an unexpected power surge, but his contact-heavy approach makes dramatic improvement unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Jeremy Peña props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jeremy Peña's Total Bases prop record home games?
Jeremy Peña's total bases prop record in home games is 19-43-0 over/under, hitting just 30.6% overs across 62 games from May 2023 through September 2024. This represents a clear pattern of under performance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jeremy Peña Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Jeremy Peña's total bases props at home games. The data strongly supports this with a 69.4% under hit rate and +32.4% ROI, while overs lose money at -41.5% ROI.
What's Jeremy Peña's average Total Bases home games?
Jeremy Peña averages 1.56 total bases per home game, which falls 0.8 bases short of typical betting lines around 2.34. This significant gap creates consistent value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Jeremy Peña's total bases under is when lines are set at 2.0 or higher at home, maximizing the value gap. Avoid during hot streaks, though his longest over streak was just 3 games.