Jeremy Peña's total bases props present a compelling under opportunity with a historically low 25.2% over rate across 111 games. His 1.57 average falls nearly a full base below typical 2.47 lines, generating exceptional +42.8% ROI on unders. This represents one of the most reliable fade candidates in baseball.
Expert Analysis
Jeremy Peña's total bases performance reveals a systematic disconnect between market expectations and reality. Averaging just 1.57 total bases against lines typically set around 2.47, Peña consistently fails to reach the power thresholds books price into his props. His 25.2% over rate isn't just poor—it's historically bad for a starting shortstop, suggesting fundamental issues with his offensive profile that markets haven't fully adjusted for. The -0.9 differential between his average and typical lines represents nearly a full base of value, which translates directly to the impressive +42.8% under ROI. Most telling is the streak data: while his longest over streak maxes out at just 4 games, Peña once went 24 consecutive games under his total bases line. This isn't variance—it's a player whose power output simply doesn't match market perception. The 28-83 record speaks to consistency rather than randomness, with unders hitting at a 74.8% clip that would be unsustainable if driven by luck alone. Peña's profile suggests a contact-oriented player whose doubles and home run frequency falls well short of what books factor into their pricing models.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Jeremy Peña's total bases props offer exceptional value with a 74.8% under hit rate and +42.8% ROI that reflects genuine market inefficiency rather than temporary variance. The nearly full-base gap between his 1.57 average and typical 2.47 lines creates consistent profit opportunities. Primary risk is potential lineup changes or injury affecting sample relevance, but the 111-game dataset provides robust evidence of sustainable edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jeremy Peña's Total Bases prop record all games?
Jeremy Peña's total bases props show a 28-83-0 over/under record across 111 games, hitting the under at a 74.8% rate. His 25.2% over rate ranks among the lowest for regular players, with unders generating +42.8% ROI compared to -51.8% on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jeremy Peña Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Jeremy Peña's total bases props with high confidence. His 1.57 average falls 0.9 bases below typical lines, creating consistent value. The 74.8% under hit rate and +42.8% ROI indicate a sustainable edge rather than temporary variance.
What's Jeremy Peña's average Total Bases all games?
Jeremy Peña averages 1.57 total bases per game compared to typical prop lines around 2.47. This -0.9 differential represents nearly a full base of value, explaining why unders have hit in 83 of 111 games with exceptional profitability.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Jeremy Peña total bases unders consistently given the 74.8% hit rate across all conditions. Focus on games where lines approach 2.5 total bases, as the gap between his 1.57 average and market pricing creates maximum value opportunities.