Jeremy Peña's home run prop at home games presents one of the strongest under trends in baseball, hitting over just 4 of 62 times (6.5%). With an average of 0.06 home runs per game against typical 0.5 lines, this represents a massive -0.4 differential and elite under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Jeremy Peña's home run futility at Minute Maid Park stems from a perfect storm of factors working against power production. The 6.5% over rate across 62 games isn't a small sample fluke—it represents systematic suppression of his power stroke in Houston. Peña's contact-oriented approach generates more ground balls than fly balls, and Minute Maid's dimensions, while favorable down the lines, still require legitimate power to clear consistently. His swing mechanics prioritize bat-to-ball skills over launch angle optimization, evident in his microscopic 0.06 home run average at home. The 25-game under streak within this sample demonstrates remarkable consistency in this weakness. Most concerning for over bettors is that Peña's role as Houston's table-setter means he's not hunting fastballs in hitter's counts—he's working deep counts and taking what pitchers give him. His current 5-game under streak suggests this pattern remains intact. While regression theory suggests no player can sustain a 93.5% under rate indefinitely, Peña's skill set and approach make him uniquely suited to continue disappointing over bettors. The -87.7% ROI on overs tells the complete story of a player whose game simply doesn't translate to consistent home run production at home.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Jeremy Peña's 6.5% over rate at home represents elite betting value that aligns perfectly with his contact-first approach and Minute Maid Park's requirements for legitimate power. The 25-game under streak within this sample proves this isn't variance—it's systematic power suppression. Target this under in any spot where the line sits at 0.5, especially with Houston's tendency to manufacture runs rather than rely on solo shots.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jeremy Peña's Home Runs prop record home games?
Jeremy Peña has gone under his home runs prop in 58 of 62 home games (93.5%), hitting over just 4 times for a devastating 6.5% over rate with -87.7% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jeremy Peña Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Jeremy Peña's home runs props at home games with high confidence. His 6.5% over rate and contact-first approach make this one of baseball's strongest under trends.
What's Jeremy Peña's average Home Runs home games?
Jeremy Peña averages 0.06 home runs per home game against typical 0.5 lines, creating a massive -0.4 differential that heavily favors under bets in this spot consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jeremy Peña home run unders whenever he's playing at Minute Maid Park, especially at 0.5 lines. His contact approach and 25-game under streak make home games ideal for under bets.