Jerar Encarnacion's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going 2-8-0 (20% overs) over his last 10 games with a massive -1.6 differential from the typical 2.7 line. His 1.1 average total bases suggests books are significantly overvaluing his offensive output.
Expert Analysis
Encarnacion's total bases struggles reflect the harsh reality of a fringe MLB player fighting for relevance. His 1.1 average against a 2.7 line reveals a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and actual performance. The 20% over rate isn't just poor luck—it's systematic underperformance that suggests limited plate discipline and power. The longest under streak of six games demonstrates sustained offensive futility, while his longest over streak maxed at just one game. This pattern indicates Encarnacion lacks the consistent contact quality needed to regularly exceed modest total bases lines. As a fourth outfielder type, his at-bat opportunities are often situational, limiting his ceiling. The -61.8% ROI on overs shows books haven't properly adjusted to his offensive limitations, creating a persistent edge for under bettors. Without meaningful adjustments to his approach or role, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Encarnacion's 1.1 total bases average creates substantial value against typical 2.7 lines, supported by an 80% under rate and +52.7% ROI. Target games where he's batting lower in the order or facing quality pitching to maximize the edge. Main risk is sample size and potential role changes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jerar Encarnacion's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Encarnacion went 2-8-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of over bets. His under performance generated a strong +52.7% ROI while overs lost -61.8%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jerar Encarnacion Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Encarnacion's total bases props. His 1.1 average against typical 2.7 lines creates significant value, supported by an 80% under rate and consistent underperformance patterns over 10 games.
What's Jerar Encarnacion's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Encarnacion averaged 1.1 total bases over his last 10 games, running 1.6 bases below the typical 2.7 line. This massive differential represents one of the larger edges in current props markets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Encarnacion total bases unders when he's batting seventh or lower, facing above-average pitching, or in day games where his limited power plays down. Avoid when he's in favorable spots against weak pitching.