Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s Total Bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting at just 20% over the last 10 games with a devastating -1.4 differential from the 3.0 line. The Yankees outfielder is averaging only 1.6 total bases per game, creating a clear lean under with strong value.
Expert Analysis
Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s Total Bases struggles since joining the Yankees represent a dramatic shift from his Miami production. The 1.6 average against a 3.0 line suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his reduced power output in pinstripes. This isn't simply bad luck—Chisholm's 20% over rate indicates systematic issues, likely stemming from adjusting to American League pitching and a different offensive role. The current six-game under streak demonstrates consistency rather than variance, as he's managed multiple total bases in just two of ten contests. The -61.8% ROI on overs reflects how dramatically overvalued these lines have been. While regression toward career norms seems inevitable, the persistence of this trend through 10 games suggests legitimate changes in approach or circumstances. The Yankees' patient offensive philosophy may be constraining Chisholm's aggressive style that generated extra-base hits in Miami. Books appear slow to adjust, creating continued value on unders until Chisholm demonstrates sustained power resurgence or lines drop significantly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 20% over rate and -1.4 differential create clear value, but 10-game samples demand caution with regression potential. Target unders when lines remain at 3.0 or higher, especially against quality pitching that has consistently limited Chisholm's extra-base opportunities. The main risk is books finally adjusting lines downward or Chisholm breaking through with a multi-hit power game.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Jazz Chisholm Jr. props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has gone 2-8-0 on Total Bases props over his last 10 games, hitting the over in just 20% of contests. He's averaging 1.6 total bases against a typical 3.0 line, creating a significant -1.4 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jazz Chisholm Jr. Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s Total Bases props. The 20% over rate and -1.4 average differential provide clear value, especially with six consecutive unders showing consistency. Target lines at 3.0 or higher for maximum edge until books adjust downward.
What's Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s average Total Bases last 10 games?
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is averaging just 1.6 total bases over his last 10 games compared to the typical 3.0 line. This -1.4 differential represents massive value for under bettors, as he's falling significantly short of market expectations consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Jazz Chisholm Jr. Total Bases unders when lines remain at 3.0 or higher, particularly against quality starting pitching. The best spots are when books haven't adjusted despite the clear 10-game trend showing just 20% overs and persistent underperformance.