Jared Triolo's home run prop at PNC Park presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, hitting over just 12.5% of the time across 16 games with a brutal -0.4 differential versus the standard 0.5 line. The under delivers exceptional 67% ROI while currently riding a five-game streak.
Expert Analysis
Triolo's power deficit at home stems from multiple converging factors that create a near-automatic under situation. PNC Park's dimensions favor gap hitters over home run threats, with its 325-foot foul territory and prevailing winds typically working against power production. More critically, Triolo's swing mechanics and approach simply don't generate the launch angle consistency needed for regular home run production, evidenced by his microscopic 0.12 average that falls 76% short of the betting line. The 87.5% under rate isn't fluky variance—it reflects a fundamental mismatch between his skillset and the prop requirement. His longest over streak spans just one game while under streaks extend to six games, indicating books haven't properly adjusted the line downward. The -76.1% over ROI represents catastrophic losses for anyone betting the wrong side, while under bettors enjoy sustainable profits. Triolo's profile suggests a contact hitter maximizing doubles and triples rather than clearing fences, making this trend highly persistent rather than due for regression. The five-game current under streak aligns perfectly with his established pattern.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Triolo's 12.5% over rate combined with PNC Park's power-suppressing characteristics creates an exceptional edge that books haven't corrected. The 67% under ROI demonstrates sustainable profitability while his 0.12 average suggests the 0.5 line remains significantly overvalued. Primary risk involves potential line adjustment, but current pricing offers tremendous value for disciplined under bettors.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jared Triolo's Home Runs prop record home games?
Triolo's home run prop record in home games stands at 2-14-0 over/under, hitting the over in just 12.5% of his 16 games at PNC Park with an average of 0.12 home runs per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jared Triolo Home Runs home games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Triolo's 87.5% under rate and 67% ROI on under bets creates exceptional value, while his swing profile poorly matches home run requirements at PNC Park.
What's Jared Triolo's average Home Runs home games?
Triolo averages 0.12 home runs per game at PNC Park, creating a massive -0.4 differential versus the typical 0.5 betting line and indicating significant overvaluation by sportsbooks.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Triolo home run unders during any Pirates home game, especially with favorable pitching matchups or wind conditions. The edge remains consistent regardless of opponent due to park factors and his contact-oriented approach.