James Outman's hits props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going just 1-9 over his last 10 games with a brutal 10.0% over rate. Averaging only 0.3 hits against a 1.0 line creates a massive -0.7 differential that suggests serious offensive struggles. This is a strong lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Outman's offensive decline during this 10-game stretch. Averaging just 0.3 hits per game while facing a 1.0 line represents a fundamental disconnect between expectation and reality. The 90% under rate isn't just variance—it signals legitimate plate discipline issues or mechanical problems that have persisted across multiple weeks. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency of failure, with Outman currently riding a 3-game under streak and having posted a devastating 6-game under streak within this sample. The -80.9% ROI on overs demonstrates how dramatically the market has mispriced his current form. While regression is always possible in baseball, the depth of this slump suggests underlying issues that won't resolve overnight. The 71.8% ROI on unders reflects the market's slow adjustment to Outman's diminished production. Without significant mechanical changes or a dramatic shift in approach, this trend appears sustainable in the near term, making under bets on Outman's hits props an attractive proposition until the market fully corrects or his performance fundamentally improves.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 90% under rate combined with a -0.7 differential creates clear value on under bets. Target spots where the line remains at 1.0 or higher, as the market hasn't fully adjusted to Outman's current struggles. Main risk is natural regression and potential lineup changes that could spark improvement, but the consistency of poor performance suggests this trend has staying power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is James Outman's Hits prop record last 10 games?
James Outman has gone 1-9 on hits props over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 10.0% of the time. This represents one of the most lopsided under trends in recent baseball betting, with unders cashing at a 90% clip during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on James Outman Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on James Outman's hits props. The 90% under rate and -0.7 differential between his 0.3 average and the 1.0 line creates clear value. Continue targeting unders until his performance improves or the market adjusts significantly.
What's James Outman's average Hits last 10 games?
James Outman is averaging just 0.3 hits per game over his last 10 contests, well below the typical 1.0 line. This -0.7 differential represents a massive gap that has consistently favored under bettors throughout this sample period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target James Outman hits unders when the line is set at 1.0 or higher, particularly in day games or against quality pitching. Avoid betting when the line drops below 0.5, as that suggests the market has finally adjusted to his poor form.