Jake Rogers presents one of the most extreme home run prop trends in baseball, going 0-20 on overs at home with a perfect 0.0% hit rate. His 0.05 average home runs per home game sits dramatically below typical 0.5+ lines, creating a -100% ROI disaster for over bettors and +90.9% goldmine for under backers.
Expert Analysis
Rogers' home run futility at Comerica Park stems from a perfect storm of factors working against power production. As a defensively-oriented catcher, Rogers prioritizes contact and situational hitting over swing-for-the-fences approaches, particularly evident in his home environment where he's managed just one home run across 20 games spanning 15 months. Comerica Park's spacious dimensions and Detroit's often cool weather create additional headwinds for marginal power hitters like Rogers, whose .05 home runs per game average suggests he's essentially a singles hitter when playing at home. The 20-game sample size provides robust statistical significance, especially given the consistency across multiple seasons and varying lineup contexts. What makes this trend particularly reliable is Rogers' role as a backup catcher who sees irregular playing time, meaning his home plate appearances are often in lower-leverage situations where pitchers attack the zone more aggressively. The complete absence of even a single over hit in 20 attempts indicates this isn't random variance but a fundamental mismatch between Rogers' hitting profile and home run production expectations. Regression concerns are minimal given his limited raw power and the park factors working against him.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Rogers' perfect 0-20 under record at home represents one of baseball's most reliable prop trends, driven by his contact-first approach and Comerica Park's power-suppressing dimensions. The 0.05 average sits so far below typical 0.5+ lines that even modest regression wouldn't threaten under bettors. Target this prop whenever Rogers is in the starting lineup at home, especially against quality pitching where his conservative approach becomes even more pronounced.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Rogers's Home Runs prop record home games?
Jake Rogers has gone 0-20 on home run overs in home games, posting a perfect 0.0% success rate. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records in baseball, with under bettors enjoying a flawless 20-0 record and +90.9% ROI over 15 months.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Rogers Home Runs home games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Rogers' 0.05 home runs per home game and perfect 0-20 over record create an exceptional edge for under bettors. His contact-first approach and Comerica Park's dimensions make home run production extremely unlikely.
What's Jake Rogers's average Home Runs home games?
Jake Rogers averages just 0.05 home runs per home game, compared to typical betting lines of 0.5 or higher. This massive -0.5 differential means he's producing home runs at one-tenth the rate that sportsbooks expect, creating tremendous value on unders.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Rogers home run unders whenever he's starting at home, especially against quality pitching staffs. His perfect 0-20 record shows consistency across all conditions, but stronger opposing pitchers further reduce his already minimal power threat at Comerica Park.