Jake Rogers has been a consistent under performer on his hits prop, going 4-6 over the last 10 games with a devastating -0.2 differential against the line. The 40% over rate paired with strong under ROI of +14.6% creates a clear edge for contrarian bettors targeting the under.
Expert Analysis
Jake Rogers's hitting struggles over this 10-game sample reveal a catcher whose offensive production has fallen short of market expectations. The 0.7 hits per game average against a 0.9 line represents a significant 22% shortfall, indicating either the market is slow to adjust or Rogers is experiencing genuine regression in his contact ability. The -23.6% ROI on overs tells the story of consistent disappointment for those backing Rogers to exceed expectations. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the persistence factor - Rogers is currently riding a 2-game under streak, part of a pattern that saw him post his longest under streak of 4 games during this span. The 40% over rate suggests the market hasn't fully corrected for his diminished offensive output, creating value on the under side. Catchers often face unique challenges with fatigue and wear throughout the season, and Rogers's position behind the plate could be contributing to his offensive decline. The lack of split data prevents deeper situational analysis, but the raw numbers paint a clear picture of a player struggling to meet even modest hitting expectations. This trend appears sustainable given the physical demands of catching and the market's apparent reluctance to properly adjust the line downward.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Rogers's consistent underperformance against a 0.9 hits line that appears too generous creates betting value. The -0.2 differential and strong under ROI indicate the market hasn't properly adjusted to his recent struggles. Target this bet when the line remains at 0.9 or higher, as any reduction weakens the edge significantly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Rogers's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Jake Rogers has gone 4-6 on his hits over/under in the last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. His average of 0.7 hits per game falls well short of the typical 0.9 line, creating a -0.2 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Rogers Hits last 10 games?
Bet the under on Jake Rogers hits props. His 0.7 average against a 0.9 line creates clear value, supported by strong under ROI of +14.6%. The market appears slow to adjust to his recent offensive struggles as a catcher.
What's Jake Rogers's average Hits last 10 games?
Jake Rogers is averaging 0.7 hits per game over his last 10 contests, significantly below the standard 0.9 hits line. This -0.2 differential represents a 22% shortfall, indicating consistent underperformance against market expectations for his offensive output.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jake Rogers under bets when the hits line is set at 0.9 or higher, particularly during day games after night games when catcher fatigue is most pronounced. His current 2-game under streak suggests the trend remains active.