Jake Fraley's Total Bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 1-of-10 overs (10.0%) with a devastating -1.9 differential from his 3.2 line. Currently riding a five-game under streak, this trend screams continued regression. Lean Under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Jake Fraley's Total Bases collapse represents one of the season's most reliable under trends, with his 1.3 average sitting nearly two full bases below typical 3.2 lines. This isn't just bad luck—it's systematic underperformance that suggests either injury concerns, mechanical issues, or a fundamental shift in his approach at the plate. The 71.8% ROI on unders tells the story of a player whose power has completely evaporated over this stretch. What makes this trend particularly compelling is its consistency—five straight unders indicate this isn't random variance but a sustained pattern. The lack of even a single multi-hit power game during this span suggests Fraley is either playing through something or has lost his timing entirely. Books have been slow to adjust, continuing to hang lines that reflect his earlier-season production rather than current reality. The danger lies in potential overcorrection—if Fraley finds his stroke, the pendulum could swing violently in the other direction. However, until we see concrete evidence of improvement, the path of least resistance remains backing unders on a player who's averaging barely one base per game while being priced for over three.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Fraley's systematic underperformance over 10 games, averaging just 1.3 Total Bases against 3.2 lines, creates exploitable value on unders. The five-game streak and -1.9 differential suggest books haven't fully adjusted to his current form. Primary risk is sudden breakout performance, but until Fraley shows signs of power returning, the under remains the superior play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Fraley's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Jake Fraley has gone 1-9-0 on Total Bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of over bets. He's averaging only 1.3 Total Bases per game while typical lines sit around 3.2, creating a massive -1.9 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Fraley Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Jake Fraley's Total Bases props. His 1-9 over record, five-game under streak, and 71.8% ROI on unders create clear value. Books haven't adjusted to his power outage, making unders the smart play until he shows improvement.
What's Jake Fraley's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Jake Fraley is averaging just 1.3 Total Bases over his last 10 games, nearly two full bases below his typical 3.2 line. This -1.9 differential represents one of the season's largest gaps between performance and market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jake Fraley Total Bases unders when lines remain at 3.0 or higher, especially against quality pitching. His current form suggests any line above 2.5 offers value, but avoid betting if he shows signs of breaking out of this slump.