Jake Fraley's home Total Bases props present a compelling under opportunity with just 28.6% overs across 21 games. His 1.19 average sits 1.1 bases below the typical 2.31 line, generating +36.4% ROI on unders while overs lose at a brutal -45.5% clip. This is a strong lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Jake Fraley's home Total Bases performance reveals a player consistently overvalued by oddsmakers at Great American Ball Park. The 1.19 average against a 2.31 line represents a massive 48% gap that suggests fundamental mispricing rather than variance. Fraley's current seven-game under streak extends the longest dry spell of his home season, indicating the trend has momentum rather than being due for regression. The -45.5% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't adjusted to Fraley's limited power profile in Cincinnati's home environment. His 6-15 over record demonstrates remarkable consistency in failing to reach inflated expectations. Great American Ball Park's dimensions may favor gap shots over home runs, but Fraley's approach appears poorly suited to capitalize on those opportunities. The absence of any meaningful over streaks longer than four games suggests this isn't a player prone to explosive multi-hit performances at home. With books continuing to set lines above his demonstrated ceiling, the under represents exceptional value. The 21-game sample provides sufficient data to trust this pattern, especially given the consistency of the shortfall.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Fraley's 1.19 home average creates a significant edge against the typical 2.31 line, supported by strong under ROI and a current seven-game streak. The ideal condition is any line set at 2.0 or higher, where the gap becomes even more pronounced. The main risk is regression toward his road numbers, but the consistency of this home pattern suggests environmental factors rather than random variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Fraley's Total Bases prop record home games?
Jake Fraley has gone over his Total Bases prop in just 6 of 21 home games (28.6% rate) while going under 15 times. His home record shows remarkable consistency in falling short of oddsmaker expectations throughout the season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Fraley Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Jake Fraley's Total Bases props at home. His 1.19 average sits well below typical lines around 2.31, creating consistent value. The under has delivered +36.4% ROI while overs lose money at -45.5%.
What's Jake Fraley's average Total Bases home games?
Jake Fraley averages 1.19 Total Bases in home games compared to the typical 2.31 line. This 1.1-base differential represents a 48% gap, indicating the market consistently overvalues his home production by nearly a full base.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jake Fraley Total Bases unders when lines are set at 2.0 or higher at Great American Ball Park. His current seven-game under streak and season-long pattern suggest consistent value, especially on weekend series when casual money inflates props.