Jake Cronenworth's Total Bases props present one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, hitting just 23.8% overs across 84 games with a crushing -1.0 differential versus the line. Currently riding a 10-game under streak, this represents a high-conviction fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Cronenworth's Total Bases performance reveals a fundamental disconnect between market perception and reality. His 1.57 average falls a full base short of the typical 2.58 line, creating consistent value on the under. This isn't merely a cold streak—it's a systematic pattern spanning over a full season of data. The 23.8% over rate indicates books are consistently overvaluing his power output, likely anchored to past performance or positional expectations. His current 10-game under streak represents the longest drought in the sample, suggesting either continued struggles or books slow to adjust. The -54.5% ROI on overs demonstrates how punishing this fade has been for contrarian bettors. What makes this trend particularly reliable is its consistency—even his longest over streak reached just 4 games, showing limited ceiling for hot streaks. Cronenworth appears to be a classic case of a player whose batting profile doesn't align with total bases production, likely due to limited power or situational hitting approach that prioritizes contact over extra-base opportunities.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 1.0 base differential and 76.2% under rate create exceptional value that shows no signs of meaningful regression. Target this prop aggressively when lines remain in the 2.5+ range, as Cronenworth's profile suggests continued struggles reaching multi-base totals. The primary risk is a sudden power surge, but 84 games of data indicate this is his true talent level.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Cronenworth's Total Bases prop record all games?
Cronenworth's Total Bases record shows 20 overs and 64 unders across 84 games, a devastating 23.8% over rate. His 1.57 average falls a full base short of the typical 2.58 line, creating consistent under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Cronenworth Total Bases all games?
Bet the UNDER aggressively. With a 76.2% under rate and -1.0 differential, this represents one of baseball's most reliable prop fades. The 84-game sample size provides high confidence in continued under performance.
What's Jake Cronenworth's average Total Bases all games?
Cronenworth averages 1.57 Total Bases per game against a typical line of 2.58, creating a massive 1.0 base shortfall. This differential has produced a 45.5% ROI on under bets across the sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cronenworth Total Bases unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher, particularly during his current 10-game under streak. Avoid during rare hot streaks, though his maximum over streak was just 4 games.