Jake Burger's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% overs across his last 10 games with a devastating -1.1 average differential. The third baseman is averaging only 0.8 total bases against typical 1.9 lines, creating exceptional under value.
Expert Analysis
Jake Burger's total bases collapse represents one of the most exploitable trends in current MLB props. Averaging just 0.8 total bases against 1.9 lines creates a massive 1.1 differential that suggests either severe injury concerns, a dramatic shift in approach, or books slow to adjust to his declining production. The 20% over rate across 10 games isn't variance—it's systematic underperformance that has generated +52.7% ROI for under bettors. Burger's current three-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern, where he's managed just two overs in 10 attempts. The most concerning factor is the consistency of his struggles, with no apparent hot streaks to suggest imminent regression. His longest over streak spans just one game, indicating this isn't a temporary slump but a fundamental shift in his offensive output. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the story of a player whose books haven't caught up to his reality. While regression is always possible, the depth and persistence of this trend suggests structural issues rather than bad luck.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Burger's systematic underperformance against inflated lines creates rare edge in props betting. The 0.8 average against 1.9 lines represents market inefficiency that hasn't corrected despite overwhelming evidence. Target games where lines remain above 1.5, particularly in challenging matchups. Primary risk is sudden offensive awakening, but three-month sample suggests this is Burger's new baseline rather than extended slump.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Burger's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Jake Burger has gone 2-8 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of over bets. He's averaging only 0.8 total bases against typical lines of 1.9, creating a massive 1.1 negative differential for consistent under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Burger Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Jake Burger's total bases props with high confidence. His 20% over rate and +52.7% under ROI across 10 games represents exceptional market inefficiency that books haven't corrected despite overwhelming evidence of declining production.
What's Jake Burger's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Burger is averaging just 0.8 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 1.9. This creates a devastating 1.1 negative differential that has produced just two overs in 10 attempts for systematic under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Burger's total bases unders when lines remain above 1.5, particularly against quality pitching or in road games. The market's slow adjustment to his declining production creates consistent value, especially during his current three-game under streak.