Jake Burger presents one of the most extreme home run trends in baseball, going 0-19-0 on Over bets in home games with a perfect 0.00 home run average against a 0.5 line. This represents a -100% ROI disaster for Over bettors but a profitable 90.9% ROI for Under backers across 19 games.
Expert Analysis
Jake Burger's home run futility at home defies typical power hitter expectations, creating a betting edge rooted in ballpark dynamics and approach adjustments. The 0-for-19 Over record spans nearly a full season of data, suggesting this isn't random variance but a systematic issue. Burger's complete inability to clear the fence at home likely stems from pressing in familiar surroundings, altered swing mechanics, or unfavorable ballpark dimensions that neutralize his power stroke. The consistency of this trend—19 consecutive Unders without a single Over—indicates a fundamental mismatch between Burger's power profile and home conditions. While regression toward league norms seems inevitable for any hitter, the sample size provides substantial evidence that something specific about Burger's home environment suppresses his power output. The 0.5 home run line appears generous given his actual production, creating recurring value on the Under. However, bettors should monitor any mechanical adjustments or lineup changes that might signal a breakthrough, as even one multi-homer game could dramatically shift both his average and the betting landscape.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Jake Burger's 0-19-0 home run record at home represents one of the strongest trend-based edges in player props. The 19-game sample provides robust evidence that home conditions systematically suppress his power, making the 0.5 line consistently inflated. Ideal conditions include day games and facing quality pitching where Burger typically struggles most. Main risk is regression catching up suddenly with a multi-homer outburst.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Burger's Home Runs prop record home games?
Jake Burger is 0-19-0 on Over bets for home runs in home games, meaning he has failed to hit a single home run at home across 19 games. This perfect Under record represents one of the most extreme prop betting trends in baseball with a -100% ROI for Over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Burger Home Runs home games?
Bet the Under on Jake Burger's home runs in home games with high confidence. His 0-19-0 record and 0.00 average against a 0.5 line creates consistent value, though monitor for any signs of mechanical changes that might signal a breakthrough performance.
What's Jake Burger's average Home Runs home games?
Jake Burger averages exactly 0.00 home runs per game in home contests, creating a massive -0.5 differential against the typical 0.5 line. This gap between his actual production and the betting line represents the core value proposition for Under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jake Burger home run Unders during day games and against quality starting pitching when his struggles are most pronounced. Avoid betting during hot streaks on the road, as confidence might carry over, and monitor lineup changes that could alter his approach.