Jake Bauers has been an under bettor's dream over his last 10 games, going 2-8 against total bases lines with a brutal 20.0% over rate. Averaging just 0.9 total bases against a 2.5 line creates a massive -1.6 differential. This represents a clear fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Jake Bauers's total bases struggles reflect a player caught between roles and struggling for consistent playing time. The 0.9 average against a 2.5 line isn't just bad luck—it's systematic underperformance driven by reduced plate appearances and diminished power output. Bauers is averaging fewer at-bats per game as Milwaukee has shuffled their outfield rotation, limiting his opportunities to accumulate bases even on decent contact days. His current five-game under streak highlights how sportsbooks have been slow to adjust lines downward, creating persistent value on the under. The -61.8% ROI on overs versus +52.7% on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency. Bauers's role as a platoon player means he's often facing tougher matchups when he does start, particularly against left-handed pitching where his career splits show significant struggles. The lack of extra-base power—evident in his recent game logs showing mostly singles when he does connect—makes reaching 2.5 total bases require multiple hits, something increasingly rare given his current form. This isn't regression territory; it's a reflection of a player whose role and performance have fundamentally shifted, yet the betting market hasn't fully caught up.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 20.0% over rate and -1.6 differential create clear value, especially with Bauers's reduced role limiting plate appearances. The five-game under streak isn't fluky—it reflects systematic issues with power and playing time. Best spots are when he's facing quality pitching or in platoon situations. Main risk is a breakout multi-hit game, but his current trajectory strongly favors the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Bauers's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Jake Bauers has gone 2-8 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of over bets. He's averaging 0.9 total bases against a typical 2.5 line, creating a significant -1.6 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Bauers Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Jake Bauers's total bases. His 20.0% over rate and current five-game under streak reflect systematic issues with reduced playing time and power decline. The market hasn't adjusted quickly enough, creating clear under value at current lines.
What's Jake Bauers's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Jake Bauers is averaging just 0.9 total bases over his last 10 games, well below the typical 2.5 line. This -1.6 differential represents one of the larger gaps between performance and betting expectations, strongly favoring under wagers.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities come when Bauers faces quality pitching or starts in platoon situations with limited at-bats. Avoid betting when he's in favorable matchups against weak right-handed pitching, as these represent his highest upside scenarios for multiple-hit games.