Jake Bauers presents a compelling under opportunity with total bases props, hitting under 61.9% of the time across 21 games. His 1.57 average falls 0.6 bases short of typical 2.17 lines, generating +18.2% ROI on unders. The current 5-game under streak reinforces this edge.
Expert Analysis
Jake Bauers's total bases struggles stem from his role as a platoon player and bench contributor rather than an everyday starter. His 1.57 average against typical 2+ lines creates a fundamental mismatch that books haven't fully adjusted for. The 38.1% over rate isn't fluky - it reflects Bauers's limited power profile and inconsistent playing time that restricts his ceiling. When Bauers does start, he's often facing tougher matchups or filling in due to injuries, situations that don't favor offensive production. The 5-game under streak demonstrates how his limited upside creates sustainable betting value. His longest over streak reached just 2 games, showing how rarely he strings together productive performances. The -27.3% ROI on overs warns against chasing the occasional big game. Bauers's profile as a depth piece means his total bases props are often set optimistically, assuming full games and favorable matchups that don't consistently materialize. This creates a structural edge for under bettors willing to fade the occasional power display.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Bauers's 61.9% under rate and +18.2% under ROI create legitimate value, especially with his current 5-game streak supporting the trend. Target unders when he's in platoon situations or facing quality pitching. The main risk is an occasional multi-hit game inflating his ceiling, but his 2-game max over streak suggests these are outliers rather than sustainable runs.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Bauers's Total Bases prop record all games?
Jake Bauers has gone under his total bases prop in 13 of 21 games (61.9%) this season, with an 8-13-0 over/under record. His under bets have generated a positive 18.2% ROI while overs have lost 27.3%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Bauers Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Jake Bauers total bases props. His 61.9% under rate and +18.2% under ROI create clear value, especially given his current 5-game under streak and limited role as a platoon player.
What's Jake Bauers's average Total Bases all games?
Jake Bauers averages 1.57 total bases per game, falling 0.6 bases short of typical 2.17 lines. This consistent gap between his production and betting lines creates the foundation for profitable under betting.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jake Bauers total bases unders when he's in platoon situations or facing quality pitching staffs. His limited ceiling as a bench player makes unders most profitable in these restrictive matchups.