Jake Bauers has been an under bettor's dream, going 2-8 on his hits prop with just a 20.0% over rate across his last 10 games. Averaging 0.3 hits against a 1.3 line creates a massive -1.0 differential that screams systematic value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Jake Bauers's hits prop presents one of the clearest under trends in recent memory, with his 0.3 average sitting a full hit below the typical 1.3 line. This isn't marginal variance—it's a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and reality. The 20.0% over rate suggests books are either slow to adjust or banking on public bias toward the over. Bauers's role as a part-time outfielder likely limits his plate appearances, making even one hit a challenge when he's not seeing regular at-bats. The -61.8% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has already identified this edge, while the +52.7% under ROI validates the strategy. His longest under streak of four games demonstrates the sustainability of this pattern. The current one-game over streak actually presents a prime fade opportunity, as regression toward his established pattern becomes more likely. Without splits data to suggest matchup-specific vulnerabilities, this appears to be a player-specific inefficiency rather than situational variance. The sample size of 10 games provides sufficient data for pattern recognition while remaining fresh enough to reflect current form and usage patterns.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Bauers's 0.3 hits average creates a massive one-hit cushion below typical lines, making this one of the most reliable under plays available. Target this prop in any game where he's projected for limited plate appearances or facing quality pitching. The primary risk is an unexpected hot streak, but his 20.0% over rate suggests even good games rarely reach the number.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Bauers's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Jake Bauers has gone 2-8 on his hits prop over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 20.0% of the time. This represents one of the most reliable under trends among active players with significant sample sizes.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Bauers Hits last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Jake Bauers hits props with high confidence. His 0.3 average creates a full-hit buffer below typical 1.3 lines, and the 20.0% over rate shows this edge has been remarkably consistent across recent games.
What's Jake Bauers's average Hits last 10 games?
Jake Bauers is averaging just 0.3 hits per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 1.0 hits below the standard 1.3 line. This massive differential represents one of the largest gaps between performance and market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jake Bauers hits unders when he's in a part-time role with limited plate appearances, especially after any over performance. His pattern shows strong reversion tendencies, making post-success games particularly valuable betting spots.