Jake Bauers has been a consistent under performer in home hits props, going 6-8-0 with just a 42.9% over rate. His 0.71 average sits 0.22 hits below the typical line, creating a clear edge for under bettors with positive 9.1% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of Jake Bauers struggling to meet expectations at American Family Field. His 0.71 hits per home game average represents a significant 23.7% shortfall against the standard 0.93 line, suggesting books may be overvaluing his home performance. This isn't a small sample fluke either – across 14 documented home games, Bauers has consistently failed to reach his projected output. The current three-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, as his longest over streak maxed out at just two games. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the sustained nature of the underperformance. While regression is always possible, the consistency suggests underlying factors beyond simple variance. Milwaukee's home park dimensions, Bauers' approach against familiar pitching staffs, or comfort level adjustments could all contribute to this pattern. The -18.2% ROI on overs versus +9.1% on unders creates a meaningful edge for contrarian bettors. However, the limited sample size and lack of recent form data introduce some uncertainty. Still, when a player consistently underperforms by nearly a quarter-hit per game at home, the market appears slow to adjust, creating ongoing value for disciplined under bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Bauers' home hitting struggles create clear value, with his 0.71 average sitting well below typical lines and generating positive under ROI. The three-game under streak reinforces the broader pattern of home underperformance. Primary risk is sample size limitations and potential market correction, but the consistency of results suggests sustainable edge for selective under betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Bauers's Hits prop record home games?
Jake Bauers has gone 6-8-0 on hits props in home games, hitting the over just 42.9% of the time across 14 games from April through September 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Bauers Hits home games?
Bet under on Jake Bauers hits props at home. His consistent underperformance (0.71 average vs 0.93 line) and positive under ROI make this a solid contrarian play.
What's Jake Bauers's average Hits home games?
Jake Bauers averages 0.71 hits per home game, which sits 0.22 hits below the typical 0.93 line, representing a significant 23.7% shortfall from market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jake Bauers under bets specifically in home games where his struggles are most pronounced. Avoid road games where this negative trend may not apply.