Jacob Young has been a consistent under performer in total bases, hitting just 40% overs across his last 10 games while averaging 1.3 total bases against a 2.8 line. This massive -1.5 differential signals a clear market inefficiency favoring unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Jacob Young's recent offensive struggles, with his 1.3 total bases average falling dramatically short of the typical 2.8 line set by books. This 53.6% shortfall suggests either Young is experiencing a genuine downturn in production or the market hasn't adjusted to his current role and form. The 14.6% ROI on unders demonstrates profitable betting opportunity, while the -23.6% over ROI confirms how consistently Young has disappointed expectations. His current two-game under streak extends what appears to be a pattern of limited offensive impact. The concerning element is the sample size - 10 games provides meaningful data but leaves room for variance. Young's inability to reach even modest total bases expectations indicates either reduced playing time, poor contact quality, or facing tougher pitching matchups. The longest under streak of three games shows sustained periods of offensive futility, while his longest over streak maxed at just two games, suggesting any positive momentum gets quickly derailed. Without split data to identify favorable spots, the trend appears consistent across various conditions, making it a relatively stable betting angle until proven otherwise.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Young's 1.3 average against typical 2.8 lines creates a substantial edge, supported by profitable under ROI and consistent failure to meet expectations. The ideal spot is any line at 2.5 or higher, where the gap becomes even more pronounced. Main risk is sample size regression and potential role changes that could increase his offensive opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jacob Young's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Jacob Young has gone 4-6 over/under on total bases props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. He's averaging only 1.3 total bases per game during this stretch, well below typical market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jacob Young Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Jacob Young's total bases props. His 1.3 average creates significant value against standard 2.8 lines, with under bets showing 14.6% ROI. The trend appears sustainable given his current offensive struggles and limited production.
What's Jacob Young's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Jacob Young is averaging 1.3 total bases over his last 10 games, which sits 1.5 bases below the typical 2.8 line. This represents a 53.6% shortfall from market expectations, creating substantial under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jacob Young total bases unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher, maximizing the value gap. Avoid betting after strong offensive games, as books may temporarily lower lines before reverting to standard pricing.