Jacob Young's Hits prop at home presents a clear edge toward the under, hitting just 33.3% of the time across 33 games with an average of 0.73 hits against a 1.11 line. The -0.4 differential and +27.3% ROI on unders makes this a strong fade candidate in Washington.
Expert Analysis
Jacob Young's home hitting struggles create a compelling betting pattern that transcends normal variance. His 0.73 hits per game average sits significantly below the typical 1.11 line, creating consistent value on unders. The 33.3% over rate across 33 games represents a substantial sample size that suggests genuine skill-based limitations rather than bad luck. Young's profile as a contact-oriented player who lacks power means he relies heavily on finding gaps and beating out grounders, skills that can be neutralized by familiar home ballpark dimensions and opposing scouting reports. The persistence of this trend, including a brutal 10-game under streak, indicates that books may be slow to adjust lines appropriately for his home performance. While regression is always possible, Young's underlying approach and the Nationals' offensive environment suggest this pattern has staying power. The +27.3% ROI on unders demonstrates that even accounting for juice, this trend has generated consistent profit. Home cooking clearly doesn't agree with Young's hitting approach.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Young's home hitting deficiencies are too pronounced to ignore, with the 0.73 average creating a significant gap against standard lines. Target this when the line sits at 1.0 or higher for maximum value. The main risk is a hot streak breaking the pattern, but his contact-heavy approach limits ceiling outcomes that could derail the trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jacob Young's Hits prop record home games?
Jacob Young has gone under his Hits prop in 22 of 33 home games (66.7%), with only 11 overs. His 0.73 hits per game average consistently falls short of the typical 1.11 line, creating a -0.4 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jacob Young Hits home games?
Bet under on Jacob Young's Hits props at home. The 33.3% over rate and +27.3% ROI on unders across 33 games creates a clear edge, especially when lines sit at 1.0 or higher.
What's Jacob Young's average Hits home games?
Jacob Young averages 0.73 hits per home game, significantly below the standard 1.11 line. This -0.4 differential represents one of the larger gaps between performance and market expectations for regular players.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jacob Young's Hits unders when lines are set at 1.0 or higher for maximum value. Home games provide the strongest edge given his 33.3% over rate in that split specifically.