Jackson Merrill's home run production has fallen off a cliff over his last 10 games, posting a brutal 2-8-0 record on the over with just 0.2 home runs per game against 0.5 lines. The under delivers a massive 52.7% ROI while riding a seven-game streak, creating a compelling fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Jackson Merrill's power outage represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball right now. Averaging just 0.2 home runs per game against consistent 0.5 lines, the rookie center fielder has managed only two long balls across 10 games spanning over a month. This isn't variance—it's a fundamental shift in his offensive profile. The seven-game under streak suggests Merrill is either pressing at the plate or facing adjusted scouting reports that have neutralized his power stroke. His 20% over rate would be concerning enough, but the -61.8% ROI on overs tells the real story of how dramatically his power has disappeared. The persistence of this trend across different opponents and venues indicates this isn't matchup-dependent but rather reflects Merrill's current approach or mechanical issues. While rookie power surges often regress, this level of sustained futility suggests books haven't fully adjusted their lines to reflect his current reality. The under's 52.7% ROI demonstrates clear market inefficiency, as recreational bettors likely still remember Merrill's earlier power displays. With no signs of the streak breaking and books still hanging 0.5 lines, this trend has room to continue generating profit for sharp under bettors who recognize the rookie's current limitations.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Merrill's complete power drought over 10 games isn't variance—it's a new reality that books haven't fully priced in. The seven-game under streak and 52.7% ROI demonstrate clear market value on the under. Target 0.5 home run lines in any matchup, as this trend transcends opponent quality and shows no signs of breaking.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jackson Merrill's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Jackson Merrill has gone 2-8-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 0.2 home runs per game. The under has delivered a massive 52.7% ROI while overs have lost bettors 61.8% of their investment.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jackson Merrill Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Jackson Merrill's home runs with high confidence. His seven-game under streak and 0.2 average against 0.5 lines represent clear value, especially with the under generating 52.7% ROI over this sample.
What's Jackson Merrill's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Jackson Merrill is averaging just 0.2 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.3 below typical 0.5 betting lines. This 60% deficit below the standard line creates significant value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jackson Merrill home run unders when books post 0.5 lines, regardless of matchup. His power drought transcends opponent quality, making any 0.5 line profitable given his current 0.2 per game average and seven-game under streak.