Jackson Holliday has gone under his Total Bases prop in all 10 games since late August, averaging just 0.5 total bases against a 2.9 line. This represents the most extreme underperformance we've tracked, with under bets delivering a 90.9% ROI. The data strongly favors continuing to fade Holliday's Total Bases props.
Expert Analysis
Jackson Holliday's Total Bases performance represents a catastrophic disconnect between market expectations and reality. Averaging 0.5 total bases against a 2.9 line creates a staggering 2.4-base deficit per game, suggesting either severe overvaluation by oddsmakers or fundamental swing changes that haven't been properly adjusted for. The perfect 0-10 under record across a meaningful 10-game sample indicates this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. Young players often struggle with major league adjustments, and Holliday appears to be in the midst of significant mechanical or approach issues. The consistency of this underperformance across different opponents and situations suggests the market hasn't properly recalibrated expectations. While regression toward the mean is always possible, the magnitude of this underperformance indicates structural problems that likely persist until we see clear evidence of adjustment. The -100% ROI on overs demonstrates how toxic this prop has been for anyone betting the number, while under bettors have profited handsomely. This level of consistent failure typically continues until either the player makes dramatic adjustments or books finally lower their expectations significantly.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Jackson Holliday's Total Bases props remain severely overvalued, with the 0.5 average creating massive value on unders. Target this prop when lines stay above 2.0, as the market hasn't adjusted to his current performance level. The main risk is sudden mechanical fixes, but the consistency of struggles suggests continued underperformance until proven otherwise.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jackson Holliday's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Jackson Holliday is 0-10 on Total Bases overs in his last 10 games, going under every single prop. He's averaging 0.5 total bases against a typical 2.9 line, creating a perfect under record with -100% ROI on overs and +90.9% on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jackson Holliday Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Jackson Holliday's Total Bases props with high confidence. The 0-10 under record and 0.5 average against 2.9 lines shows systematic overvaluation. Continue fading until books significantly lower expectations or Holliday shows clear mechanical improvements.
What's Jackson Holliday's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Jackson Holliday is averaging just 0.5 total bases over his last 10 games, compared to the typical 2.9 line. This creates a massive 2.4-base deficit per game, representing one of the most extreme underperformances we've tracked.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Jackson Holliday Total Bases unders when lines stay above 2.0, particularly early in series when books haven't adjusted. Target games against quality pitching where his struggles are most pronounced, but avoid if he shows signs of mechanical adjustments.