Jackson Chourio's away Total Bases props present a clear under edge, hitting just 42.1% overs across 19 road contests with an 8-11-0 record. The rookie averages 2.11 total bases against typical 1.82 lines, but the -19.6% ROI on overs reveals consistent line inflation. Lean Under with medium conviction.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Jackson Chourio's road struggles as a rookie. While his 2.11 average appears to beat the typical 1.82 line, the brutal -19.6% ROI on overs exposes how books have consistently overpriced his away props. This suggests Chourio faces legitimate challenges on the road that aren't fully captured in his raw averages. Rookie hitters historically struggle with road adjustments - unfamiliar ballparks, hostile crowds, and disrupted routines all contribute to decreased performance. The current three-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern, where he's posted a devastating six-game under streak at his worst. What's particularly telling is how the market continues to set lines that create value on the under despite his poor over rate. This indicates either stubborn optimism about his talent level or failure to properly weight his road splits. The 10.5% ROI on unders demonstrates sustainable profit, suggesting this isn't random variance but a persistent edge. Chourio's youth and inexperience likely amplify typical road disadvantages, making his away Total Bases props consistently overvalued throughout his debut campaign.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 42.1% over rate combined with positive under ROI creates a sustainable edge on Jackson Chourio's away Total Bases props. Target spots where the line sits at 1.5 or higher, particularly in challenging road environments against quality pitching. The main risk is regression as Chourio develops, but his rookie status suggests road struggles will persist through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 9.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jackson Chourio's Total Bases prop record away games?
Jackson Chourio's Total Bases record in away games stands at 8-11-0 over/under across 19 contests, translating to just 42.1% overs. This poor over rate has generated a -19.6% ROI for over bettors while under backers enjoyed +10.5% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jackson Chourio Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Jackson Chourio's Total Bases in away games. The 42.1% over rate and positive under ROI create a clear edge. Target lines at 1.5 or higher and avoid spots where he faces weak pitching in hitter-friendly parks.
What's Jackson Chourio's average Total Bases away games?
Jackson Chourio averages 2.11 total bases in away games, which sits 0.29 above the typical 1.82 line. However, this modest edge is misleading - the negative over ROI shows books consistently overprice his props despite the favorable average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jackson Chourio's Total Bases unders in challenging road environments against quality starting pitching. Avoid betting when he faces weak pitching staffs or plays in extreme hitter-friendly ballparks where his talent could overcome typical road disadvantages.