Hunter Goodman's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40% overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -1.4 differential to the typical 2.8 line. The under trend shows strong momentum with +14.6% ROI, making this a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Hunter Goodman's total bases struggles stem from fundamental offensive limitations that books haven't fully adjusted for. His 1.4 average against a 2.8 line represents a massive 50% gap that suggests either inflated expectations or slow line movement. The 4-6-0 over-under record tells only part of the story - the -23.6% ROI on overs indicates these aren't close misses but decisive failures to reach inflated numbers. Goodman's profile as a rookie catcher transitioning to first base creates inherent volatility, but the consistency of his underperformance suggests this isn't random variance. The current streak of one under follows his longest under streak of three games, indicating the market may still be overvaluing his ceiling. Most concerning for over bettors is the lack of any explosive multi-hit games that would justify these elevated lines. His power profile doesn't support consistent extra-base production, making these total bases numbers particularly vulnerable. The 60% under rate becomes even more compelling when considering that baseball props typically see closer to 50-50 splits over meaningful samples. This level of directional bias, combined with positive under ROI, suggests either a fundamental mispricing or a player whose ceiling is lower than market perception.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge, though the limited sample size prevents higher conviction. Target this when lines remain at 2.5+ total bases, as Goodman's 1.4 average suggests consistent value on unders. Main risk is a breakout performance that could shift market perception, but his profile suggests more singles than extra-base hits moving forward.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Hunter Goodman props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Hunter Goodman's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Hunter Goodman has gone 4-6-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of his overs with a concerning -23.6% ROI that demonstrates consistent underperformance against market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Hunter Goodman Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Hunter Goodman's total bases props. His 1.4 average against typical 2.8 lines creates a -1.4 differential with 60% under success rate and positive 14.6% ROI showing clear value.
What's Hunter Goodman's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Hunter Goodman averages 1.4 total bases over his last 10 games compared to the typical 2.8 line, creating a massive 50% gap that consistently favors under bettors seeking value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hunter Goodman total bases unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher, especially against quality pitching where his limited power profile becomes more exposed and the value gap widens further.