Hunter Goodman's home run prop at Coors Field presents a compelling under opportunity with just 20.0% overs across 15 games. Despite playing in baseball's most hitter-friendly park, Goodman averages only 0.2 home runs per home game against typical 0.5 lines. The under offers exceptional value with +52.7% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Hunter Goodman's home run struggles at Coors Field defy conventional wisdom about the ballpark's offensive advantages. His 3-12 over/under record represents a massive 80% under rate that extends beyond normal variance into systematic underperformance. The -0.3 differential between his 0.2 average and standard 0.5 lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for Goodman's specific power limitations. His current six-game under streak, matching his season-long maximum, indicates persistent struggles with elevation and timing at altitude. While Coors Field typically inflates offensive numbers, Goodman's swing mechanics and approach appear poorly suited to capitalize on the thin air advantage. The rookie's 20% over rate is extraordinarily low for any player, let alone one playing half his games in Denver's launching pad. His power profile suggests gap-to-gap contact rather than true home run authority, making him vulnerable to over-inflated lines based purely on ballpark factors. The consistency of this trend across multiple months indicates a fundamental mismatch between Goodman's skillset and market expectations, creating sustainable betting value on the under.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Goodman's systematic home run underperformance at Coors Field creates exceptional betting value, with the under hitting 80% of the time while generating +52.7% ROI. His six-game under streak reflects deeper mechanical issues rather than temporary slump. Target unders when lines sit at 0.5, especially against quality pitching. Main risk is small sample size potentially masking true talent level.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Hunter Goodman's Home Runs prop record home games?
Hunter Goodman's home run prop record in home games stands at 3-12-0 over/under, representing just 20.0% overs across 15 games. This 80% under rate significantly outperforms typical market expectations for Coors Field players.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Hunter Goodman Home Runs home games?
Bet the under on Hunter Goodman's home run props in home games. The under has hit 80% of the time with +52.7% ROI, while his 0.2 average trails standard 0.5 lines by a significant margin.
What's Hunter Goodman's average Home Runs home games?
Hunter Goodman averages 0.2 home runs per home game, creating a -0.3 differential against typical 0.5 lines. This substantial gap indicates the market overvalues his power potential despite playing in hitter-friendly Coors Field.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hunter Goodman home run unders when lines sit at 0.5, particularly against quality starting pitching. His current six-game under streak and consistent underperformance create optimal conditions for contrarian under betting at Coors Field.