Hunter Goodman's hits prop at home presents a compelling under opportunity with just 25% overs hitting across 16 games. His 0.81 home average sits 0.44 hits below the typical 1.25 line, generating strong -52.3% over ROI while unders profit at +43.2%.
Expert Analysis
Hunter Goodman's home hitting struggles create one of the more reliable under trends in baseball props. His 0.81 hits per game at Coors Field dramatically underperforms the standard 1.25 line, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted for his home/road split or are banking on the Coors Field mystique. The 10-game under streak within this sample indicates systematic issues rather than random variance. Goodman's plate approach appears compromised in familiar surroundings, possibly due to pressing or mechanical adjustments that backfire in the thin air. The 4-12 over/under record spans multiple months, showing persistence across different opponents and situations. While Coors Field typically inflates offensive numbers, Goodman represents a clear exception where the venue works against him. The -0.44 differential between his average and the line is substantial enough to overcome typical regression concerns. Books likely set his home line based on park factors rather than his actual performance data, creating exploitable value. The consistency of this underperformance, combined with the significant sample size, suggests this trend has staying power rather than being a temporary slump.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Goodman's home hitting woes create consistent value against inflated lines that don't reflect his actual performance at Coors Field. Target unders when the line sits at 1.0 or higher, especially in day games where his struggles appear most pronounced. Main risk is eventual positive regression, but the trend's persistence suggests structural issues rather than bad luck.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Hunter Goodman's Hits prop record home games?
Hunter Goodman's hits prop record in home games is 4-12-0 over/under, hitting just 25% overs across 16 games. This translates to unders cashing at a 75% rate with strong +43.2% ROI for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Hunter Goodman Hits home games?
Bet under on Hunter Goodman's hits in home games. His 0.81 average sits significantly below typical 1.25 lines, creating consistent value. The trend shows persistence across multiple months with a current 10-game under streak.
What's Hunter Goodman's average Hits home games?
Hunter Goodman averages 0.81 hits per home game compared to the typical 1.25 line, creating a -0.44 differential. This substantial gap between performance and pricing drives the strong under value in home contests.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hunter Goodman hits unders when lines are 1.0 or higher at home games. Day games appear particularly favorable given his struggles in familiar surroundings, while avoiding spots after extended road success that might indicate form changes.