Henry Davis has delivered profitable hitting performances over his last 10 games, going over the hits line 60% of the time with a solid +14.6% ROI on overs. His 0.9 average significantly exceeds the typical 0.6 line, creating a +0.3 differential that suggests consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a compelling picture for Henry Davis's hitting consistency. His 0.9 hits per game average represents a 50% premium over the standard 0.6 line, indicating either improved plate approach or systematic line mispricing. The 60% over rate coupled with +14.6% ROI on overs demonstrates sustainable profitability rather than variance-driven results. Davis appears to have found his groove at the major league level, translating his minor league hitting success into consistent contact. The -23.6% under ROI serves as a stark warning against fading his hitting ability during this stretch. What's particularly encouraging is the 4-game over streak within this sample, suggesting Davis can string together productive hitting performances rather than alternating randomly. The recent 2-game under streak might actually present value, as regression toward his established 60% over rate becomes more likely. Without specific split data, we're relying on the raw performance metrics, but they strongly favor continued hitting success. The key question becomes whether this represents a new baseline for Davis or an unsustainable hot streak that will regress.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Davis's 0.9 average against a typical 0.6 line creates legitimate value, especially after a 2-game under streak that could signal regression back toward his 60% over rate. The +14.6% ROI on overs indicates this isn't just variance but sustainable edge. Main risk is sample size limitations and potential oddsmaker adjustments to his improved hitting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Henry Davis's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Henry Davis has gone 6-4-0 over/under on his hits prop in the last 10 games, hitting the over 60% of the time. This translates to a profitable +14.6% ROI when betting overs during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Henry Davis Hits last 10 games?
Lean over on Henry Davis hits props based on his 0.9 average significantly exceeding typical 0.6 lines. The 60% over rate and +14.6% ROI indicate sustainable edge, especially after his current 2-game under streak.
What's Henry Davis's average Hits last 10 games?
Henry Davis is averaging 0.9 hits per game over his last 10 contests, which is 0.3 hits above the typical 0.6 line he faces. This represents a 50% premium and suggests consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Davis hits overs after brief under streaks when regression becomes likely, and when facing standard 0.6 lines that don't account for his improved 0.9 average. Avoid during extended over runs when lines may adjust upward.