Henry Davis's hits prop shows clear under value with a 42.9% over rate (6-8 record) and negative -18.2% ROI on overs. The catcher averages exactly 0.64 hits against a 0.64 line, but the consistent under performance suggests systematic factors favor the under.
Expert Analysis
Henry Davis's hits prop presents a compelling under opportunity rooted in the fundamental challenges facing young catchers. His 42.9% over rate across 14 games reveals a pattern where the market consistently overvalues his offensive output. The -18.2% ROI on overs versus +9.1% on unders isn't coincidental—it reflects the physical and mental demands of catching that impact offensive consistency. Davis faces the dual burden of game-calling responsibilities and the wear from squatting behind the plate, factors that create subtle but persistent drag on his hitting performance. The Pirates' offensive struggles compound this issue, as Davis often bats in situations with limited run support and faces opposing pitchers who can attack the zone more aggressively. His current two-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, and the equal longest streaks of four games both over and under suggest this isn't a temporary slump but rather the natural volatility around a player whose true talent sits slightly below the market's assessment. The fact that his actual average perfectly matches the line at 0.64 while still producing negative over returns indicates the line may be a touch high for his realistic ceiling in most game situations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 57.1% under rate combined with positive under ROI suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to Davis's offensive reality as a young catcher. Target games where Pittsburgh faces quality pitching or Davis is coming off physically demanding contests. Primary risk is small sample size variance and potential offensive breakout as he develops.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Henry Davis's Hits prop record all games?
Henry Davis has gone 6-8 on hits overs across 14 games, hitting the over just 42.9% of the time. His under bets show a +9.1% ROI while overs have lost -18.2%, indicating consistent under value in the market pricing.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Henry Davis Hits all games?
Lean under on Henry Davis hits props. The 57.1% under rate and positive under ROI suggest the market overvalues his offensive output. Focus on games against quality pitching or when he's handling a heavy catching workload.
What's Henry Davis's average Hits all games?
Henry Davis averages exactly 0.64 hits per game, matching the typical 0.64 line perfectly. However, despite the identical numbers, overs have produced negative returns while unders show profit, suggesting the line sits slightly above his realistic ceiling.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Henry Davis under bets when Pittsburgh faces strong starting pitching or in day games after night games where catching fatigue is elevated. Avoid betting his props in favorable hitting environments or against struggling pitchers where variance increases.