Harrison Bader's home total bases prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 6 overs in 25 games (24.0% hit rate). His 0.88 average falls 1.4 bases short of the typical 2.3 line, creating consistent value on unders with a current 10-game under streak.
Expert Analysis
Bader's home struggles create one of the season's most reliable under trends, driven by his contact-heavy approach that produces minimal extra-base power at Citi Field. The 0.88 average against a 2.3 line represents a massive 61.7% gap that suggests either chronic line inflation or genuine home venue struggles. His 10-game under streak isn't just variance—it reflects a player whose speed-first skill set doesn't translate to total bases production in his home ballpark. The 45.1% ROI on unders demonstrates consistent market inefficiency, as oddsmakers appear slow to adjust for Bader's power deficiencies at home. While regression concerns exist with any extreme streak, Bader's underlying profile suggests this trend has staying power. His contact rate and ground ball tendencies limit ceiling outcomes, while Citi Field's pitcher-friendly dimensions compound the issue. The absence of recent hot streaks or notable splits data reinforces that this isn't situational—it's systematic underperformance in total bases accumulation when playing at home.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Bader's home total bases props offer exceptional value with a 76% under hit rate and substantial average shortfall. The 10-game streak reflects genuine skill-park mismatch rather than mere variance. Target this prop when lines sit at 2.0 or higher, as Bader's contact-oriented approach consistently falls short of power-based expectations at Citi Field.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Harrison Bader's Total Bases prop record home games?
Bader went 6-19-0 over/under on total bases props at home in 2024, hitting just 24.0% of overs. His 19 unders in 25 games represent one of the season's most reliable under trends with exceptional consistency.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Harrison Bader Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Bader's total bases at home with high confidence. His 0.88 average falls 1.4 bases short of typical lines, creating a 76% under hit rate with strong ROI that shows no signs of regression.
What's Harrison Bader's average Total Bases home games?
Bader averaged just 0.88 total bases per home game, falling 1.4 bases short of the standard 2.3 line. This 61.7% gap between performance and expectation creates consistent under value throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bader's total bases unders when lines reach 2.0 or higher at home games. His contact-oriented approach and Citi Field's dimensions create ideal conditions, especially during his current 10-game under streak.