Harrison Bader's home run prop at home presents one of the season's most reliable under bets, hitting just 7.7% of overs across 26 games with a devastating -0.5 differential versus the typical line. Currently riding an 11-game under streak, this represents a clear systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Harrison Bader's power limitations at Citi Field, where he's managed just two home runs all season against consistently inflated lines. His 0.08 home runs per game average sits dramatically below the standard 0.54 prop line, creating a massive -0.5 differential that oddsmakers have failed to correct. This isn't variance—it's systematic overvaluation of a contact hitter in a pitcher-friendly park. Citi Field's dimensions work against Bader's spray-chart tendencies, as his gap-to-gap approach rarely generates the elevation needed to clear the walls. The 11-game under streak isn't fluky; it reflects his fundamental offensive profile as a speed-over-power player whose value comes from defense and baserunning, not launching baseballs. Bader's 92.1 mph average exit velocity ranks in the bottom quartile among qualified hitters, and his 6.8% barrel rate confirms he simply doesn't make the type of contact that translates to home runs consistently. The market continues pricing him like a middle-of-the-order threat when he's functionally a bottom-third power hitter, especially in his home ballpark where the dimensions amplify his limitations.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 7.7% over rate combined with the -0.5 line differential creates exceptional value on Bader home run unders at Citi Field. His contact-over-power profile and the ballpark's pitcher-friendly dimensions form a perfect storm for continued under success. The primary risk is a random hot streak, but his underlying metrics suggest this trend has strong fundamental backing rather than being variance-driven.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Harrison Bader's Home Runs prop record home games?
Harrison Bader has gone over his home run prop just twice in 26 home games this season, posting a 2-24-0 record for a 7.7% over rate. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records across all players and stat categories in 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Harrison Bader Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Harrison Bader's home run props at home games with high confidence. His 7.7% over rate and -0.5 line differential create exceptional value, supported by his contact-over-power profile and Citi Field's pitcher-friendly dimensions that limit his power upside.
What's Harrison Bader's average Home Runs home games?
Harrison Bader averages 0.08 home runs per game at home, compared to the typical 0.54 prop line. This creates a massive -0.5 differential, meaning he's falling short of the line by half a home run per game on average.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Harrison Bader home run unders consistently at Citi Field, especially when lines are set at 0.5 or higher. His profile as a contact hitter in a pitcher-friendly ballpark creates systematic value, with the 11-game under streak indicating persistent edge.