Ha-Seong Kim's home Total Bases prop presents a compelling under opportunity with a dismal 22.0% over rate across 41 games. His 0.88 average sits 1.3 bases below typical lines, generating a robust 49.0% ROI on unders. This trend shows remarkable consistency with 10 consecutive unders.
Expert Analysis
Kim's home struggles with Total Bases stem from his contact-heavy approach playing poorly at Petco Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions. The 0.88 average against 2.13 lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his home park suppression, creating persistent value on unders. His 22.0% over rate indicates fundamental issues with power production at home, likely tied to Petco's expansive foul territory and marine layer effects that knock down fly balls. The current 10-game under streak isn't just variance - it reflects Kim's profile as a slap hitter whose doubles and triples get turned into routine outs in San Diego's spacious outfield. While regression always looms, the 1.3-base differential between his average and typical lines is too significant to ignore. Kim's approach doesn't change dramatically game-to-game, and Petco's dimensions remain constant. The sample size of 41 games provides statistical significance, and the consistency of results suggests this isn't random fluctuation but a genuine market inefficiency. However, bettors should monitor for any signs of improved power or significant lineup changes that could alter his approach.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Kim's home Total Bases props offer exceptional value with a 49.0% ROI and remarkable consistency. The 1.3-base gap between his 0.88 average and typical 2.13 lines creates a sustainable edge that Petco Park's dimensions help maintain. Target this prop when Kim faces quality pitching or in day games where marine layer effects are strongest. Primary risk is a hot streak breaking the pattern, but his contact-first profile limits explosive upside.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ha-Seong Kim's Total Bases prop record home games?
Kim's Total Bases prop at home shows a 9-32-0 record (22.0% overs) across 41 games from August 2023 to August 2024, with his 0.88 average falling 1.3 bases short of typical 2.13 lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ha-Seong Kim Total Bases home games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Kim's 49.0% ROI on home unders and current 10-game under streak create exceptional value, especially given the 1.3-base gap between his average and typical lines.
What's Ha-Seong Kim's average Total Bases home games?
Kim averages just 0.88 Total Bases in home games compared to typical lines around 2.13, creating a massive 1.3-base deficit that consistently favors under bettors with strong returns.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kim's Total Bases unders in home day games against quality pitching when Petco's marine layer is strongest. His contact-heavy approach plays worst in these conditions with maximum park suppression effects.