Ha-Seong Kim's home run prop at home presents one of the sharpest under opportunities in baseball, with a catastrophic 4.8% over rate across 42 games. Kim averages just 0.07 home runs per home game against typical 0.5+ lines, creating an 81.8% ROI on unders. This is a premium fade-the-power situation with exceptional edge.
Expert Analysis
Ha-Seong Kim's home power profile represents a fundamental mismatch with standard home run pricing. His 0.07 home runs per game at Petco Park reflects both ballpark suppression and his natural swing mechanics that don't translate to consistent power production. The 18-game under streak isn't variance—it's Kim's true talent level in his home environment. Petco Park's dimensions, particularly the 396-foot center field and marine layer effects, systematically neutralize Kim's gap-to-gap approach. His swing path generates line drives rather than the launch angle needed for home runs, especially problematic in a pitcher-friendly venue. The 2-40 record spans multiple seasons, indicating this isn't a temporary slump but a persistent skill-environment mismatch. Books continue setting 0.5+ lines based on his overall numbers, but Kim's home/road power split creates massive pricing inefficiency. The -90.9% over ROI demonstrates how consistently markets misprice his home power ceiling. Kim's value lies in his contact ability and speed, not power production, making him an ideal candidate for systematic under betting in home games where environmental factors compound his natural limitations.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Ha-Seong Kim's home run under at Petco Park offers exceptional value with an 18-game active streak and 95.2% historical success rate. The fundamental mismatch between his line-drive approach and home run requirements, amplified by Petco's pitcher-friendly dimensions, creates sustainable edge. Risk only emerges if books dramatically adjust lines below 0.5, but current pricing remains exploitable.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ha-Seong Kim's Home Runs prop record home games?
Ha-Seong Kim's home run prop record in home games is 2-40-0 over/under, meaning the under has hit in 40 of 42 games (95.2% success rate). He's averaging just 0.07 home runs per home game, well below typical 0.5+ betting lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ha-Seong Kim Home Runs home games?
Bet the UNDER on Ha-Seong Kim's home runs in home games with high confidence. The 95.2% under success rate and 18-game active streak create exceptional value, as his line-drive approach doesn't translate to power at pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
What's Ha-Seong Kim's average Home Runs home games?
Ha-Seong Kim averages 0.07 home runs per home game, creating a massive -0.45 differential against typical 0.52 lines. This gap represents one of the largest pricing inefficiencies in baseball props, consistently offering value on unders.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Ha-Seong Kim home run unders consistently in home games at Petco Park, regardless of opponent or conditions. The 18-game streak and 95.2% success rate indicate this edge persists across all situations, making it a systematic betting opportunity.