Gunnar Henderson's total bases prop at home presents a clear under opportunity, with overs hitting just 41.7% of the time across 60 games. The Orioles shortstop averages 2.22 total bases against a typical 2.28 line, creating a -0.06 edge that translates to profitable under betting with +11.4% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Henderson's home struggles with total bases stem from Camden Yards' pitcher-friendly dimensions and his tendency to pull the ball into spacious left field territory. The 41.7% over rate isn't random variance—it reflects genuine environmental factors that suppress his extra-base production. His 2.22 average versus the standard 2.28 line creates consistent value, as books appear to overvalue his road power numbers when setting home props. The -20.4% ROI on overs confirms this isn't a fluke, while the +11.4% under ROI demonstrates sustainable edge. Henderson's pull-heavy approach works against him at home, where his natural power stroke gets swallowed by Camden Yards' dimensions. The current two-game over streak actually strengthens the under case, as regression typically follows brief hot streaks in props with such strong directional bias. His longest under streak of five games shows how quickly this trend can accelerate, while the modest three-game over maximum suggests limited ceiling at home.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence on Henderson's total bases at home. The 58.3% under rate combined with +11.4% ROI creates legitimate value, though the sample size demands respect rather than aggressive betting. Target this prop when the line sits at 2.5, as Henderson's 2.22 home average provides the clearest edge. Main risk is a hot streak inflating short-term numbers, but the underlying ballpark factors remain constant.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Gunnar Henderson's Total Bases prop record home games?
Henderson's total bases prop at home shows a 25-35-0 over/under record across 60 games, meaning overs hit just 41.7% of the time. This translates to unders cashing 58.3% of the time, creating a significant directional edge for under betting.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Gunnar Henderson Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Henderson's total bases at home. The 58.3% under rate and +11.4% ROI provide clear value, especially when the line sits at 2.5. His 2.22 home average consistently falls short of typical book lines.
What's Gunnar Henderson's average Total Bases home games?
Henderson averages 2.22 total bases in home games compared to the standard 2.28 line, creating a -0.06 differential that favors under betting. This gap represents genuine value rather than random variance given the 60-game sample size.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Henderson's total bases under when he's facing quality pitching at home or when the line reaches 2.5. Avoid betting during hot streaks, but the Camden Yards dimensions create consistent value throughout the season regardless of form.