Gavin Williams has been a consistent under performer on strikeout props, hitting just 40% overs across his last 10 starts with an average 4.1 strikeouts against typical 5.2 lines. The -1.1 differential and strong +14.6% ROI on unders signals a clear edge targeting the under.
Expert Analysis
Williams' strikeout struggles stem from his developing command and pitch efficiency issues that have plagued young starters throughout 2024. The Cleveland right-hander consistently falls short of inflated lines that fail to account for his pedestrian 7.8 K/9 rate and tendency to labor through innings. His 4.1 strikeout average reveals a pitcher who generates weak contact but lacks the swing-and-miss stuff oddsmakers price in. The persistent -1.1 differential isn't coincidental—it reflects Williams' profile as a ground ball pitcher who relies more on defense than strikeouts. Books appear slow to adjust, continuing to set lines around 5.2 when his true talent level sits closer to 4.0-4.5 strikeouts per start. The current streak of one under follows a pattern where Williams rarely strings together multiple high-strikeout games, making regression to his lower baseline more likely than a sudden power surge. His longest under streak of three games demonstrates how quickly these props can cascade once the market overreacts to a single strong performance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams consistently underperforms strikeout expectations, and the market hasn't properly adjusted to his contact-oriented profile. Target unders when lines sit at 5.0 or higher, particularly in favorable hitting environments. The main risk is a potential breakout performance against a strikeout-heavy lineup, but his track record suggests betting against inflated expectations remains the superior long-term strategy.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 0.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Gavin Williams's Strikeouts prop record last 10 games?
Williams has gone 4-6-0 on strikeout overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of over bets. He's averaging 4.1 strikeouts per start while typical lines sit around 5.2, creating a significant -1.1 differential favoring unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Gavin Williams Strikeouts last 10 games?
Bet the under on Williams' strikeout props. His 40% over rate and +14.6% ROI on unders shows consistent value. The market hasn't adjusted to his contact-oriented pitching style, creating exploitable opportunities when lines exceed 5.0.
What's Gavin Williams's average Strikeouts last 10 games?
Williams averages 4.1 strikeouts over his last 10 starts, falling 1.1 strikeouts short of typical 5.2 lines. This substantial gap indicates books are pricing him as a higher-strikeout pitcher than his recent performance suggests.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams strikeout unders when lines are set at 5.0 or higher, especially against patient lineups that work deep counts. Avoid betting after dominant strikeout performances when the market might temporarily overcorrect his props upward.